Isn’t it interesting when experts make grand predictions and then turn out to be wrong? For all of the rhetoric used by the drive-by legacy media, you’d think they’d be apologizing this year for doing so…. What am I talking…
I just want to point out that there were ZERO hurricanes to hit the U.S. this hurricane season (2006).
I feel like blogging about scientific predictions today. The more I read about the history of science the more I believe that Mother Nature has a sense of humor. It seems that whenever some prominent spokesperson stands up and makes a politically correct statement about the number of hurricanes that will occur next year or some other difficult to forecast natural event, they are setting themselves as the straight man for Mother Nature. We all want to be gracious but having lived on the Gulf coast for eighteen years, I know that predicting hurricanes still has a lot of guess work in it. You would think the head of NOAA would have more common sense than to publicly make these types of predictions. When you say,
“The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season is the busiest on record and extends the active hurricane cycle that began in 1995””a trend likely to continue for years to come.”
and the next year you have zero hurricanes hit the U.S. coast, you can slice yourself a big piece of humble pie. He obviously was paying too much attention to global warming politics. Most hurricane scientists believe that global warming plays a minor part in the science of hurricanes. Despite the attractiveness of the global warming argument the recent studies confirm that the temperature of the water is just one of many variables, its effect on the storm is complex, and it has limited effect. Cranking up the temperature does not necessarily result in more hurricanes. The zero hurricane season is a blessing in disguise for these scientists. Now they can go back to work on the science with less global warming distractions.