Are Health Care Costs a Financial Bubble?

In a previous post I compared my health insurance costs in Ohio with the lowest available plan in Massachusetts. The Massachusetts health care system is our best example of a fully implemented PPACA. The lowest available plan in Massachusetts would cost me an additional $991 per month or $11,892 per year. Now I see an article that says the average family plan for a municipal worker in Massachusetts is almost $21,000. I am 57 years old and our family has not spent $21,000 on health care in our lifetime and Massachusetts municipalities are paying that each year. Either Massachusetts has considerably more sick people than healthy people or something other than health care is going on! The health care cost saga is beginning to look like another chapter to Charles Mackay’s book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

WBUR: Report: Health Coverage For Municipal Workers More Generous Than State, Business Plans

 
The rising cost of health insurance is squeezing municipal budgets across the state. … The average family plan for a municipal worker is almost $21,000, 37 percent more than coverage companies buy, according to the report from the Boston Foundation and the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation (Oakes, 4/5).

State Roundup: Report Urges Mass. City Employees To Pay More Health Costs
Tue, 05 Apr 2011 13:12:00 GMT

I don’t know whether to laugh or cry

Every time I go through the grocery store and see all of those overweight people buzzing around in motorized carts I am struck with this strange thought, “Would our nation be healthier if we had a good old fashioned food famine?” Maybe we should ban motorized cart usage for overweight people and force every one to walk. Gluttony used to be one of the seven sins. Nowadays gluttony is our national past time and we pay the price in many different ways.

Economics of Privately Sponsored Social Insurance | The Incidental Economist

on Taylor who is now blogging on The Incidental Economist blog pointed out an interesting essay on the Economics of Privately Sponsored Social Insurance by Uwe Reinhardt. The interesting part of the essay for me was his definition for employer-based insurance:

Employment-based group health insurance, American style, is publicly subsidized, privately sponsored, community-rated social insurance sold to American employees on formally organized health insurance exchanges.

He goes on to make an eloquent argument that the Affordable Care Act is just like employment-based health insurance but with broader coverage. I have a couple of problems with his analysis.

  1. Most of America will probably agree that our number one health care problem is the amount we spend on health care. Our spending is double what the rest of the developed countries are spending and its growing faster than our wages. All of the economists and politicians agree this is not sustainable and our solution according to Uwe is to do more of the same! On the other hand if you think health care costs are the primary problem we need to address, it is pretty obvious that we need to do things differently. Since most of the people in this country have health insurance, the cost growth has been driven by this strange public-private concoction we call employment-based insurance. It is probably safe to say employment-based insurance cannot continue in its present form if we want to reduce health care costs.
  2. An annoying trend in health care essays like this is the assumption that health care insurance is equivalent to health care. The logical extension of this argument is that with 100% percent insurance coverage we will have perfect health. More health insurance will probably help but as Austin might say, things are complicated. Delivering good health care still has a lot of major problems other than insurance. In my favorite low income neighborhood I don’t think much will change. They are still going to the emergency room for their basic care. Infant mortality will remain high because they are not going to change their lifestyle or go to appointments.
  3. He also continues the fallacy that the healthy, uninsured people should subsidize sicker Americans. I wish it was this simple. This argument falls apart when you look at a real life example like I did. I compared health insurance rates for my family in Ohio and with health insurance rates as if I lived in Massachusetts. It would cost me an additional $11,892 per year for the lowest cost insurance available in Massachusetts. This does not make sense. I doubt we will ever get a good explanation of why Massachusetts costs so much more but it is not because we are subsidizing sicker Americans.
  4. Although Uwe speaks highly of health exchanges, I remain a skeptic. It does look like we are spending money on something the business world can do a lot more cost efficiently. I used the Massachusetts Health Exchange to come up with my estimate of health insurance costs in Massachusetts. I used www.ehealthinsurance.com to come up with the low cost plan for Ohio. The lowest plan on ehealthinsurance.com would cost me $305 per month. In fact there were 15 plans available for less than $400 and 55 plans for less than $600. I got a lot more plans from eHealthInsurance.com. So what exactly is our rationale for taking away ehealthinsurance.com’s business.

The Problem with Defined Benefit Plans is the same as the Problem with Defined Contribution Plans

The problem with both the defined benefit and defined contribution plans is that we do not put enough money in them. The primary difference between the plans is who we blame for not having enough funds.

EVEN WITH ROSY ASSUMPTIONS, public pensions are deep in the red. “A 2010 Pew study on public pensions nationwide put the funding gap at about a half-trillion dollars based on states’ own assumptions. But Novy-Marx and North western University’s Joshua Rauh say it’s $3 trillion using a risk-free discount rate.” I think a 4% rate is realistic. But note how bad things look assuming even a 6% return.

EVEN WITH ROSY ASSUMPTIONS, public pensions are deep in the red. “A 2010 Pew study on public pensio…
Glenn Reynolds
Sun, 27 Mar 2011 01:55:48 GMT

ObamaCare and the Truth About ‘Cost Shifting’ – WSJ.com

Healthcare cost shifting is an issue that is near and dear to my heart. As a healthy person I have been practicing my form of “cost shifting” for over ten years. My health care strategy arose when I moved to Cincinnati and was unemployed. When I looked at the COBRA insurance rates and our health history, it was financially attractive for my family to go without health insurance. I did not plan to go with our insurance for so long but it worked. The two times we had major medical costs we used our “unemployed” status to negotiate lower payments. Cost shifting is not just for poor people any more!

My situation has changed over the years. Although I am now covered by a HRA at work, I still have the passion for getting the most out of my health care spending. For over twenty years while covered by a comprehensive health care plan, I exceeded my annual insurance deductible twice. Whether I was covered by insurance or not, most of my health care expenses have been out of pocket costs. So its natural that I question health care providers about costs. It is my money that is going to pay for the service. This sense that I own my health care is probably a good thing and something PPACA would like to encourage. In a strange irony, I am the type of person our health care reform needs to help drive down health care costs and the type of person PPACA wants to eliminate. I was surprised to find out a couple of months ago that the Individual Mandate and Essential Benefits provisions of PPACA take a direct aim at people like me. It seems so strange to me. How did I become the problem?

Although I have no qualms about pursuing “cost shifting” tactics as part of my health care strategy, I am confronted with a moral dilemma when it comes to “cost shifting” as a public policy. Since the primary weakness of the PPACA is in controlling health care costs, it is probably a good public policy to have a group of people with a vested interest in driving down health care prices.  On the other hand this group may be too small to have an effect on health care costs rates for the general population. The primary problem with this tactic is that the  lower rates experienced by this group may get swallowed up in “cost shifting”. Although “cost shifting” has some social benefit for the poor, it can be used by health care providers as a tactic to avoid change. I assumed that “cost shifting” with uninsured patients was a significant cost driver to health care cost growth. In today’s Wall Street Journal article, John Cogan, Glenn Hubbard, and Daniel Kessler express the view that “there is no credible evidence of a cost shift of any substantial evidence”. This would partially explain why the individual mandate has not reduced insurance rates in Massachusetts when I compared them to Ohio. Unfortunately this leaves the justification for an Individual Mandate and what constitutes “essential services” on shaky grounds. If the Individual Mandate is essential to health care reform, then it should have a significant effect on health care costs. In the case of Massachusetts, the Individual Mandate appears to have an insignificant effect. The Individual Mandate and Essential Benefits may have an effect on health care quality but I doubt anyone will presume that these quality improvements are essential to health care reform. It would be nice to have these quality improvements but they are not essential. It follows that “essential services” must be primarily linked to controlling health care cost growth. This brings me back to the same old question, “Why is the Individual Mandate and Essential Benefits necessary to health care reform if they are not lowering insurance rates?”

Here is some of the more pertinent parts of the Wall Street article.

But how strong is the evidence for this proposition? Our review of the research has found that there is no credible evidence of a cost shift of any substantial consequence, either within state boundaries or across state lines. Moreover, the new law will likely generate more cost shifting””the opposite of what its supporters would have us believe.

There are, surprisingly, few peer-reviewed studies of the magnitude of alleged cost shifting at the national level. A study conducted by George Mason University Prof. Jack Hadley and John Holahan, Teresa Coughlin and Dawn Miller of the Urban Institute, and published in the journal Health Affairs in 2008, found that so-called cost shifting raises private health insurance premiums by a negligible amount. The study’s authors conclude: "Private insurance premiums are at most 1.7 percent higher because of the shifting of the costs of the uninsured to private insurance." For the typical insurance plan, this amounts to approximately $80 per year.

The Health Affairs study is supported by another recent peer- reviewed study that focused exclusively on physicians. That 2007 study, authored by Massachusetts Institute of Technology economists Jonathan Gruber and David Rodriguez and published in the Journal of Health Economics, found no evidence that doctors charged insured patients higher fees to cover the cost of caring for the uninsured.

Where did Congress go wrong? We traced its estimates of the magnitude of the hidden tax of $43 billion per year, or an increase in family premiums by an average of $1,000 per year, to two sources””the aforementioned Health Affairs study, and a non-peer-reviewed study commissioned by FamiliesUSA, a Washington, D.C., group long known for its advocacy of greater government involvement in health care. Yet Congress simply ignored the evidence in the Health Affairs study and failed to recognize the serious flaws in the FamiliesUSA analysis.

Specifically, Congress ignored the $40 billion to $50 billion that is spent annually by charitable organizations and federal, state and local governments to reimburse doctors and hospitals for the cost of caring for the uninsured. These payments, which amount to approximately three-fourths of the cost of such care, mitigate the extent of cost shifting and reduce the magnitude of the hidden tax on private insurance.

ObamaCare and the Truth About ‘Cost Shifting’ – WSJ.com

Steal this talk | The Incidental Economist

Here is a great resource for the key issues in health care reform. Nice job Austin!

Last fall I posted slides for my talk on the challenges presented by our health care system. In preparation for giving it tonight in my community and twice more at the University of Chicago and MIT, I’ve updated the slides. In particular, I’ve inserted a bunch on market power-related issues. Go ahead, steal them, and put them to good use:

Click here for PDF version of slides

Click here for Power Point version of slides

Steal this talk | The Incidental Economist

Boston Lager: Imported from Cincinnati

CINCINNATI – A man named Charles Koch toiled away as a brewer’s apprentice at the old Schoenling brewery, not knowing that one day his son would buy the entire operation. Today the sign on the Over-the-Rhine brewery says it all: "The Boston Beer Company — Cincinnati Brewery."

Roughly one out of every three bottles of Samuel Adams Boston Lager is brewed here. Most of the rest is brewed in Pennsylvania. The company’s brewery in Boston is primarily for research and development, specialty brews, and tours.

But that’s just the end of the Samuel Adams story. It begins in the attic of a Mt. Lookout home, where for decades young Jim Koch slept directly below the recipe that would one day make him rich and famous.

"The recipe for Sam Adams actually came from my father’s attic which was here in Cincinnati," recalls Koch, cradling a glass of Boston Lager in the brewery where his father once labored.

Boston Lager: Imported from Cincinnati.

Why Hospital Price Quotes Are So Often Useless

A co-worker of mine is in the process of finalizing his quote for the hospital costs for his second child. He is using the same hospital that he used for his first child. For the first child he was charged $15,000 by the hospital but he eventually settled for a lower amount when he started making “good faith” payments. This time he will get a package that includes pre-natal exams, ultrasounds, and delivery costs for $2,400. If his wife requires a c-section then it will cost an additional $2,600. The hospital requires that he not be covered by health insurance and that he pays the fee up front. His plan is to drop his insurance and pick it up after the birth.

Why Hospital Price Quotes Are So Often Useless.

On Health Care, Justice Will Prevail – NYTimes.com

Today I finally read the actual text of the Op-Ed piece by Laurence H. Tribe in the New York Times. As part of his justification for the Individual Mandate he actually makes the case that the health care law is little different from Social Security. Based on this association it is very small step for a person to conclude that Laurence expects the new health care law to look and act just like Social Security. Although Laurence may be comfortable with associating health care to Social Security, this is the last thing many people want to hear as health care reform. Social Security has the well deserved reputation of an entitlement that has been remarkably impervious to cost control. The idea of PPACA becoming another entitlement like Social Security is not only politically unacceptable but it extinguishes all hope of reining in rising health care costs.

For the system to work, all individuals ”” healthy and sick, risk-prone and risk-averse ”” must participate to the extent of their economic ability.

In this regard, the health care law is little different from Social Security.

On Health Care, Justice Will Prevail – NYTimes.com