Of Krugman and Diocletian – Peter C. Earle – Mises Daily

The best historical example of a socialist government before the 20th century is the government under Roman emperor Diocletian. Our founding fathers were probably familiar with this type of government and wisely chose not to follow this example. Peter Earle has written a nice piece, Of Krugman and Diocletian – Peter C. Earle – Mises Daily, that discusses the debate Ron Paul and Paul Krugman had about the Diocletian government and its relevance to our modern day governments.

Federal Reserve Reports That Revolving Credit Shrunk Last Month

Considering the paltry investment returns in the bond market and real estate, I am surprised that the average consumer has not chosen to continue pay down their credit card debt. Well, the latest report from the Federal Reserve says the consumer is back on the debt reduction track. If you believe that a financially stronger consumer is best strategy for long term economic growth and middle class wealth creation, it is time to celebrate. If you believe that our economy needs a consumer spending spurt to jump start this moribund economy, it is time to cry in your beer. For either outcome you should break out the beers. Heh, heh!

UPDATE:

It’s a miss!

Consumer credit only grew $6.5 billion in April.

That’s well below expectations of $11 billion. Furthermore, the month before was revised down from a gain of $21.3 billion to $12.3 billion.

MORE: The full report is here, and one thing that stands out is that revolving credit actually shrunk.

Overall, a pretty punk report.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/april-consumer-credit-2012-6

Red Irish Ale

Red Irish Ale, originally uploaded by billhuber.

The glass on the left is Killians and the glass on the right is my home brewed Red Irish Ale. Technically Killians is a red lager so it is not surprising that it had a sharper Lager finish. My Red Irish Ale home brew had a softer, more mellow finish with more complexity.

The First Taste of Red Irish Ale

Last night I tested the Red Irish Ale that I brew almost five weeks ago. It was in the primary fermenter for one week, secondary fermenter for two weeks, and in the bottle for two and a half weeks. The color was good but the head was barely acceptable. It reminded me of Samuel Adams Red Irish Ale. My son thought it reminded him of Samuel Adams. I have a bottle of Killian’s in the refrigerator so I will try a comparison test tonight. I might drink the whole batch trying to figure out what it tastes like. Smile

What Does The Word Austerity Really Mean?

Last weekend I watched a video clip in which Veronique de Rugy explained that “economists” define austerity as a combination of spending cuts and tax increases that reduces a country’s budget deficit. This definition is interesting. The commonly understood definition by most people is probably a lot closer to the first sentence in the Wikipedia definition for austerity.

In economics, austerity refers to a policy of deficit-cutting by lowering spending often via a reduction in the amount of benefits and public services provided.[1] Austerity policies are often used by governments to try to reduce their deficit spending[2] and are sometimes coupled with increases in taxes to demonstrate long-term fiscal solvency to creditors.[3]

The problem I have is the phrase, “sometimes coupled with tax increases”, in the second sentence. This definition implies that tax cuts are a minor part of an austerity program. Since Veronique is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and Wikipedia agree that tax increases are part of the austerity definition I am puzzled why Wikipedia did not include references to support the tax increase part of their definition. This minor part of the definition seems to be playing a bigger than anticipated part in several “austerity” programs. This ambiguity was not lost on Veronique. In her National Review article, There’s Austerity and Then There’s Austerity, she said that “Austerity means different things to different people.” She went on to say that if a country’s goal is to reduce their debt then the successful plan most likely will consist “of spending cuts rather than a mix of spending cuts and tax increase”. She appears to be consenting to including tax increases as part of an “austerity” program as long as you recognize that the research says these programs typically do not work. In another article, Fiscal Austerity in Europe Doesn’t Mean Large Spending Cuts, she pointed out that European countries do not seem to have cut spending as part of their “austerity” programs. It is at this point I started wondering whether the European “austerity” programs would be more accurately described as “business as usual but with more taxes”. We know that the common man’s definition of austerity consists primarily of cutting spending. We also know that although economists recognize that some austerity plans in the past contained a balanced mix of spending cuts and tax increases but those plans typically did not work.  So why does our government and media seem willing to stretch the definition of “austerity” to include these balanced mix programs when it is unlikely this inclusion will be successful at reducing the budget deficit or beneficial to the general population? At what point do we clean up our language and start calling programs that consist primarily of spending cuts as “austerity” programs and those programs that consist of a mix of spending cuts and tax increases as something else? In What Successful Fiscal Adjustments Look Like the “typical successful fiscal consolidation consisted of 85 percent spending cuts”.  I propose that any “austerity” program that has less than 85 percent spending cuts be called something else. Maybe we should call the balanced approach like they are using in Europe, Krugman spending cuts. Heh, Heh.

Yearning for a little “g” government

The final solution for the entitlement crisis with Social Security and Medicare is what I call little “s” socialism. Little “s” socialism is a more fiscally responsible form of our social welfare programs. It will provide most of benefits in the big “S” version of the social welfare program but it will have a balanced budget and the benefits it promises will be sustainable over the long term. With a simplified financing and benefit structure the beneficiaries of these plans will be able to make long term plans again. Although this cut back in benefits might seem crueler than a modern society should provide, this type of rationalized benefits is very similar to efforts Sweden implemented to fix its budget problems.

It struck me while reading the Introduction to The Libertarian Reader that our natural skepticism about power and big government has finally come full circle. Big Government Socialism which is beholden to the wealth creation of the Industrial Revolution has run its political course. Although it brought some advances to society, it also brought its own set of difficult problems to solve. As long as the economies kept growing and wealth continued to be created, the financing problems were manageable with pay as you go financing and occasional lying. The fallacy of these programs was that everyone was much better off even if the programs had deteriorated into a “pay as you go” system with no savings. This ended when the economies stopped growing and the demographics changed. The basic foundation of “pay as you go” social welfare program depends on having more people paying into the system then those claiming benefits. When economic growth fails to overcome the change in demographics and the benefit increases, a “pay as you go” system will quickly run out of money. Since we did not “save” enough money for the bulge of retirees we are now seeing, we are now confronted with several equally bad solutions on how to fix our problems. At this time Big Government Socialism had its “come to Jesus moment”. Everything about Big Government that allowed it to grow beyond its income also made it nearly impossible to respond to the changed situation. The future is not bright. Just look at the efforts of California and Illinois as they try to rein in their spending. Is this any different than the efforts by Greece or Spain to curb their spending? Is this anyway to run an essential government service? It is at this time we yearn for a government with a little less drama and a lot more results. Sweden and Indiana shows us that there are a variety of alternatives that work. It won’t be easy but I believe the common denominator in their solutions is humility. By its very nature Big “G” government is neither accountable or humble. For some supporters its social objectives are too big to be constrained by lack of income. Once politicians commit to spending more than the program brings in, the politics become intractable. The solution is a program can only spend what it brings in. When you simplify the financing the politics become much simpler. This is what I call a little “g” government. Its government that works and can be trusted. Like Sweden and Indiana in order to become better we must wisely become smaller. I think our founding fathers would approve but I think they might wonder why it took us so long to figure this out.

June Follow up on Green Technology that pays for itself

In my last post on energy conservation, February Follow up on Green Technology that pays for itself, it appeared that my energy savings was well on its way. Then came the shock of my March bill. The price the electrical company charges for electricity jumped by 18%. How did that happen? In a time of dropping gas and coal prices, the cost of electricity goes up! My all inclusive price for electricity in 2011 averaged out to 9.6¢. My current rate which is a flat rate for two years looks like it will average out to 10.6¢ for a 10.4% increase. I will pay a lot more in the heating months and a little less in the cooling months. With my recent lack of wage increases I doubt I will feel better about it in 2013.

For kicks I decided to estimate the cost of 6 KW solar array using the online calculator at Wunderground.com. The price came in $25,000 just for the panels. I re-priced the panels using www.solarpanelsonline.org and came up with $12,570 with a 15 year payback. This confirms previous solar panel calculations that I made in the past. Although the cost of solar panels have dropped dramatically, I need either the efficiency to improve by 100% or drop the cost  by 50% to entice me into a project like this. This amount of efficiency improvement in the next ten years is not impossible but it is unlikely.

When we look at the government report, Estimated Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources, 2016, we can see that gas and coal are the low cost power generating sources. Photovoltaic generation is one of several high cost sources. It is safe to say that coal and gas power generators are going to be with us for the foreseeable future and the question is what are we going to do to make the situation better. In a non-partisan way it would seem that we could craft a reasonable 10 year plan for Ohio that would take advantage of our competitive advantage of lower electrical rates, replace aging power plants, improve employment opportunities, and lower pollution. This is a winning issue for a lot of people including people like me who want lower electric bills when coal and gas get cheaper. I have been by several coal power generating plants and I believe their pollution risk is over-hyped. Although you can make a pretty good business case that improving existing plants is good for almost everyone, I was pretty pessimistic about the politics until I saw this post.

But Catherine Wolfram, an economist at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, says that we too often ignore simpler solutions, such as wringing more efficiency out of our existing fossil-fuel and nuclear plants. Many of those power plants, after all, are likely to stick around for decades to come. And there are quite a few minor tweaks that can be made to these plants that can cut greenhouse-gas emissions dramatically ”” tweaks that can have as much impact as building hordes of new wind farms or solar panels.

Why we ignore low-tech fixes for the climate – The Washington Post

Have we reached a transformational point in the consumer driven economy?

The most popular post on the Wall Street Journal today is, “Wiping Out $90,000 in Student Loans in 7 Months”.  Mihalic’s methods for reducing his costs are creative. He shows a gazelle like fear of debt that is emotionally necessary to paying debt down early and most importantly he is on the road to being completely debt free. Anyone who has lived no else for seven months probably has a plan for paying off his mortgage, too. This type of debt repayment would make Dave Ramsey proud but it does present some interesting questions about the economy. If this is the most popular post on the Wall Street Journal today, what does that say about the popularity of consumer debt? Has debt reduction become cool and has the America subconsciously picked a new socially acceptable debt level? I speculated in a previous post that it makes a lot of sense for America to pay down its credit card debt to a level much lower than today. If the new level for socially acceptable consumer debt is a number that is much lower than in the previous fifty years, what does it say about our consumer driven economy over the next couple of years if the consumer is diverting some of their spending power to reduce debt?

Here are some of tricks he used to pay his debt down early.

Mihalic said he spent months taking a flask of liquor to bars so he could continue to go out drinking with friends without running up a tab. (Be warned: this is typically illegal.) Instead of the movies, he took dates out hiking, or for bagels and coffee. He ate protein bars packed from home and walked several miles to the city, to save a few bucks on transportation, during a trip to Michigan. He got two roommates to rent out his house.

Mihalic also took steps that financial advisers typically say are a no-no: He liquidated his individual retirement account, drawing a tax penalty, and stopped contributing to his 401(k), even though his employer offers a matching contribution.

Non-Farm Payroll Job Growth from 2010

Here is a percentage chart I did of Non-Farm Payroll Job Growth since 2010 using FRED data. This is seasonally adjusted data they get from the BLS. The idea of this chart is to see the job creation performance in Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana compared to the US. Ohio and Indiana led the pack although all of these states had percentage increases less than the percentage increase for the US.

2010 Non-Farm Payroll Job Growth

Attention Health Care Shoppers: Colorado’s New Price List For Procedures

Here is a health care reform I can get behind. I was amazed at the price difference for pregnancy care if you were willing to pay cash. For more information about the Colorado effort please go to the nonprofit Center for Improving Value in Health Care site. For more information about the nationwide effort go to the All Payer Claims Database site.

Colorado is one of 14 states that have or are setting up searchable databases designed to help people shop and compare health care options based on price and quality.

Attention Health Care Shoppers: Colorado’s New Price List For Procedures
Eric Whitney, Colorado Public Radio
Wed, 16 May 2012 10:08:33 GMT