The United States will save about $2.6 trillion on health care expenses over a five-year period compared to initial projections made right after the passage of the Affordable Care Act.
Cost Savings Or A Bad Estimate
The trick to understanding the Affordable Care Act cost savings is the qualification, “than previously estimated”. If there are actual health insurance savings than we should see the cost curve bend. When we use 2011 as our benchmark health insurance inflation metrics tells us a different story. The cost curve did not bend. Health insurance inflation was largely unaffected.
Two weeks ago I posted my top question for both Presidential candidates so I decided to expand on that question and post my second question.
If we have a recession in your first term, what will you as President do differently with economic policies than was done in 2008?
The reason for this question is that the economy is weak and the chance for a recession is increasing.
Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan said in June that the chance of a recession in the next twelve months is between 36% and 60%.
The 1% GDP growth for the first two quarters of 2016 is sufficiently weak that a slight miss can easily drive the GDP negative and unemployment up.
Health Services Grew Almost 12 Times Faster Than Non-Health GDP. Since 2015 the increase in health care spending has resulted in flat retail sales. This health care driven economy is different than the consumer driven economy we have experience with. The health care driven economy has very narrow benefits to the overall economy compared to the consumer driven economy. Based on the GDP numbers over the last year and a half, it looks like we can have either a health care driven economy or a consumer driven economy but not both.
I think after 8 years of zero interest rates the wealth given to the banks did not trickle down to the American people.
The crucial distinction between a recession in 2008 and 2017 is that there are few if any policy options left.
With interest rates between 0% or 0.25% there is almost no benefit from lowering rates.
Weakening the dollar to increase exports is a risky policy, too. It could cause capital flight and increased interest rates.
It has been a Chinese goal to replace the dollar with the SDR as the reserve currency. To achieve that objective China will trade in a portion of its dollar debt for SDR based debt. This will probably cause increased interest rates.
Can the Federal Reserve continue to expand its balance sheet in a rising interest rate environment without international repercussions?
Can we learn anything about potential policies addressing a 2017 recession from Mr. Trump’s casino problems in Atlantic City?
My second question is what will you as President do differently concerning health care policies than was done in the Affordable Care Act?
The reason for this question is that if the ACA cannot continue in its present form so how do we address a sustainable reform?
The health exchanges of the Affordable Care Act are probably in a death spiral.
President Obama, Mr. Gruber, and other Affordable Care Act supporters have a trust problem with the middle class. The lies they told the middle class about the Affordable Care Act may be forgiven but they are not forgotten. Lying has consequences.
We have two separate health care problems, a spending problem on high cost chronic care customers and an insurance problem with the healthy customers.
The big idea for the Affordable Care Act was to dump high cost chronic care patients on the smallest health insurance market. A smarter idea would be move to high cost chronic care patients to either Medicaid or Medicare and let the health exchange work like a free market for healthy customers. If society has a moral obligation to provide affordable health care to high cost patients than it makes sense to spread these costs across a much broader base. Making a small group of healthy customers pay society’s cost for the high cost patients is the recipe for a death spiral.
We have an extremely complex way of subsidizing health insurance.. The Affordable Care Act prepays health insurance subsidies to insurance companies for low income people and uses the IRS to check compliance. If we are concerned about making a more efficient health care system than a simple re-design would avoid the money spent by the IRS on compliance.
As a person who started work in 1976 I have always had the option of affordable health insurance. As a recently as 2011 health insurance cost me $311 a month. By 2016 my grandfathered plan had increased 76% over my 2011 premium of $311 to $547. This increase is much greater than the increase in inflation and is an extravagant increase for a person who has not filed an insurance in over 16 years. The situation in the exchanges is unfortunately much worse. The lowest cost 2016 bronze plan would cost me $1,025 a month. This is 87% higher than my 2016 grandfathered plan and far higher than the 8.05% the IRS had declared as affordable. Despite being the perfect insurance customer I can no longer find affordable health insurance. In 2017 I will go without health insurance.
According to a study from the Mercatus Center the states that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act have seen enrollment higher than expected and the cost of individual enrollees has been more expensive than projected.
After listening to Episode 49 Obamacare Sinking? Why, It’s Just a Flesh Wound, Says Krugman! I felt compelled to add my two cents. Although I have not written about the Affordable Care Act in a long time I have not given up hope for meaningful health care reform. Just last week after a little prodding from Ross Kohler of ZaneBenefits I sent emails to my senators asking for their support for The Small Business Healthcare Relief Act [H.R.5447/S.3060]. The odds of it passing are up to 39% on govtrack.us! I remain optimistic for healthcare reform in the same sense as Jonathan Tepperman is optimistic in his TED talk, The Risky Politics Of Progress. He lays out a framework that worked for several previously intractable issues. I am afraid that with this issue we will have to wait for the collapse of the health exchanges before we will find the political motivation to make meaningful bipartisan changes. Think of it as the first step in a Twelve-step program for health care reform.
My comment to Episode 49.
As a middle class person who was hurt by the Affordable Care Act I was disappointed that Mr. Krugman did not reach out to the middle class with some better ideas. My annual health insurance premium went from $3,732 in 2011 to $6,564 in 2016. The lowest cost bronze plan for 2016 was going to cost me $12,300. I do not need a Nobel prize in economics to figure out that I am much worse off in 2016 than I was in 2011. For a person who has not filed a health insurance claim in this century, I lay the blame on the Affordable Care Act.
Since it is highly likely that my grandfathered health insurance plan will not be available to me in 2017, next year I am confronted with an interesting dilemma. The IRS says I should spending no more than 8.05% of my income on health insurance. That means the lowest cost bronze plan will be affordable for when I start earning $152,795. Sadly I am not earning anywhere close to that number. In an ironic twist since there are no health insurance plans available from the exchange that are affordable to me, it appears that the Affordable Care Act is recommending that I should be uninsured and enjoy my exemption from the individual mandate. I am not sure which universe Mr. Krugman is living in but the lack of affordable health insurance in the exchange is more than a bump in the road to the average middle class person. For the first time in my forty year career I will not have affordable health insurance available to me. Is this the Affordable Care Act good news Mr. Krugman was referring to?
Here is a nice story about the Cadillac Tax provision of the Affordable Care Act. Although I am not affected by the Cadillac Tax I found the video clips of Mr. Gruber and Mr. Emanuel to be particularly insightful at explaining why lying and deception was necessary to pass the Affordable Care Act. Since most of America expected that passing the Affordable Care Act would result in more affordable health care, it would have been wiser if these two men spent more of their time thinking of ways slow down health care cost increases rather than gloating over how they pulled one over on the American public.
As I have said in the past unless health insurance exchanges changed their ways and started to offering affordable health insurance to the un-subsidized healthy people they were going to morph into high risk pools. It appears that Brian Blase and I agree on this matter. In a recent article posted on Forbes and the Mercatus Center he highlights some of the problems that are worth repeating, enrollees are poorer, enrollees are older, and un-subsidized healthy people are not signing up.
Takeaway #2: Enrollees Skewing Much Poorer Than Expected
The table below shows enrollment by income group in 2015 and 2016 contrasted to the Urban Institute’s projections of 2016 enrollment made in January 2015. The table shows that exchange enrollees are much poorer than Urban expected. Other groups, including CBO and Rand, also made large errors with this projection. For example, when the law passed, Rand projected that nearly half of exchange enrollees would be unsubsidized when the law was fully implemented.
As a healthy person who is exempt from the individual mandate because I cannot purchase health insurance from the exchange for less 8.05% of my salary, I have indicated that I will go without health insurance in 2017 because saving the equivalent of my 2016 insurance premium into a savings account gives me better bang for my healthcare buck than paying exorbitant premiums for insurance I will unlikely use when it has a $10,000 deductible. With the lowest cost 2016 bronze plan costing $1,025 a month, this is up 78% over my 2016 grandfathered plan and 229% over my 2011 premium of $311. Not surprisingly Brian says it differently but the result is the same.
Unless people receive extremely large subsidies or have very expensive health conditions, buying exchange plans generally makes them worse off than remaining uninsured. As a result, the exchanges appear to be morphing into high risk pools for people with income less than twice the FPL. Simply put, it now appears that there is a significant risk that the ACA, without major change, may lead to the destruction of the individual market for health insurance.
There is something just not right about our economic malaise. Obviously this economy is different from my father’s economy but just because it is different does not mean it is better. When I went to college in the 1970s my middle class parents cash-flowed my education. Today it is nearly impossible for middle class parents to cash-flow their kid’s college education. Is this progress? The same is true about health insurance. It was such a non-issue in the 1970s that I can only remember that I had it and did not have to pay for it. As a healthy person I get no value from my current health insurance but it has grown to be one of my largest expenses and most of the increase occurred in the last couple of years. Is this progress? We seem to stuck in a loop where we keep spending more money to get the same results our parents got for much less. It is this value proposition that is frustrating and angering the middle class the most. Yesterday I was pleasantly surprised to read a Mauldin Economics newsletter describing “Dillian’s Loop“. Jared described it simply by giving the following example.
If the regulations work, they are declared a success and they write more regulations.
If they don’t work, it means they need to have more regulations.
In a way it reminds me of Albert Einstein’s quote, “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results“. The subtle difference is that “Dillian’s Loop” makes fun of people who continue to propose single factor answers to multi-factor problems despite getting the wrong answer or in some cases the right answer for the wrong reason. In the developed world we still cling to the belief that there are simple solutions to complex problems and we are only one smart administrator away from eventual success. This belief permeates a lot of our policy making. Many of the Affordable Care Act supporters believe that because they expanded Medicaid it is working as intended and the act only needs a little tweaking to bring affordable health care back into the Affordable Care Act. If reforming health care costs was that simple why didn’t the Affordable Care Act supporters start off with that? Do they really believe a few more regulations will fix the health care cost problem? Even if this overly simplistic belief system leads us into making bad decisions on complex problems like the Affordable Care Act, regulations, or quantitative easing, we cling to another belief that there is still time to kick the problems down the road for the next generation to fix. The problem is that our faith in these two beliefs is waning and the clock is ticking on when our problems will spin out of control. If we cannot fake till we make it, we will be screwed.
My biggest financial problem for 2016 is keeping my grandfathered health insurance plan and paying for it with pre-tax money. In 2014 and prior years my health insurance was affordable since it was completely paid for with money from a Health Reimbursement Account(HRA) set up by my employer. Health insurance for healthy people was affordable and the HRA allowed my employer to pay for my health insurance with pre-tax money. Like most health care decisions before the Affordable Care Act it was a no-brainer. Then we passed the Affordable Care Act and everything became complicated and more expensive. In 2015 HRA’s become an inadvertent casualty of the Affordable Care Act. The next casualty I suspect will be my grandfathered health insurance plan. So I have three options:
Convince someone in government to allow me to keep my grandfathered health insurance for another year.
Not carry any health insurance.
Get health insurance from the exchange.
No one should be surprised that health insurance from the exchange is not affordable and the only happy customers are those getting subsidies. According to the HealthCare.gov Exemptions Screener, I should be paying no more than 8% of my income on health insurance. For a couple earning $63,721(400% of the federal poverty level) this is only $425 a month. Last November I looked up the lowest cost bronze plan and it was going to cost me $979 a month or $11,748 a year. For a couple earning $63,721, health insurance would have taken 18.4% of their income. According to HealthCare.gov a couple like me would have to earn $146,850 a year before a health insurance policy from the exchange became “affordable”. Only the subsidized, wealthy, chronically ill, or naive would choose health insurance from the exchange.
With health insurance from the exchange costing $11,748 or more per year in 2016, self-insurance becomes a financially attractive option. As a healthy family who has gone without health insurance in the past(1998-2008) and who is exempt from the individual mandate because I cannot purchase “affordable health coverage” from the exchange, the biggest financial risk is a hospitalization that costs more than $12,000. If you have the discipline to have a large enough emergency fund to cover future health costs then this is an attractive, financially efficient second choice. $12,000 per year will buy a lot of health care especially if you are a savvy buyer. If I could get a catastrophic care policy priced at 4% of my income this would be my number one choice since it would be the best of both worlds, encouraging both healthy living and saving for medical expenses.
My first choice is to keep my existing health insurance and to convince the government to reinstate HRA’s for companies with less than 50 employees. My health insurance plan is almost as affordable as the subsidized insurance from the exchanges. As a person who has not filed an insurance claim in the last 15 years, I am by definition the perfect health insurance customer. It is probably in the best interest of the insurance industry to do whatever it takes to keep me as a loyal customer. Although my employer gave me a $500 a month bonus this year to pay for my health insurance I would be financially better off if that money went into a HRA. Taxing a health care bonus is just plain stupid. Once again it is in the best interest of the insurance industry to bring back the HRA before I get comfortable going without health insurance.
I was reading a post over at Hot Air, Administration delays another Obamacare rule, this time for small businesses, when I realized there is still a lot of confusion over what HRAs are and how they pay for health care. HRAs were adopted by small businesses because the individual health insurance market had better prices than the group market. Small businesses really liked the idea that the employee could get the best bang for their health care dollar with a portable plan available in the individual insurance market while the business could take a health care tax deduction just like the big companies. As an example my 2014 HRA was funded at $500 per month. The HRA funding was adequate enough to reimburse me for my health insurance premiums, my out of pocket health care expenses, and to roll $3,000 over to 2015. I think everyone would agree that the ACA never intended to change HRAs. Due to misguided rulings by the IRS in 2014 we find that many HRAs are not in compliance with the ACA and small businesses are royally pissed! Small businesses who were nice enough to offer HRAs were hoping they can redo their HRA before they get penalized. As a last resort they could choose the safe alternative that is both bad for the company and the employee. As an example since my HRA is no longer being offered as a benefit, my company opted to give me a $500 per month raise. When you remove the payroll taxes from the raise, it is not enough to pay my 2015 health insurance premium. Both the company and I are paying more. The only beneficiary of this scheme is the government who is collecting higher payroll taxes. So it is not surprising that the IRS has decided to show leniency to the small businesses they just screwed. It was the least they could do! Last year H.R.5860 – Small Business Healthcare Relief Act of 2014 was introduced with bipartisan support to try and overcome the hardships the ACA inadvertently created for small businesses. Maybe it will pass in 2015 and small businesses can go back to growing their businesses.
A recent Fox News piece on uncompensated care got me thinking about health care efficiency again. If we really had a $5.7 billion drop in hospitals’ uncompensated care costs because of the Affordable Care Act, where did the money go? Since my health insurance premium went from $407 in 2014 to $479 in 2015, I definitely am not seeing any of this love coming my way! Did we just a get a much larger version of the Oregon Medicaid experiment in which the drop in uncompensated care is replaced with an even larger increase in Medicaid spending and no discernable change in health care outcomes? The reported drop in uncompensated care is sounding like another shell game and the middle class is still stuck with Affordable Care Act supporters who really do not care about health care reforms that matter to the middle class. This is pretty simple. If you are reforming health care in a responsible and sustainable manner then we should be seeing the results in lower health insurance premiums and better health care outcomes. If we do see improvements in both areas then reforming health care has become a façade for increased cronyism and gross incompetence.
And perhaps most disturbing of all, when Stahl presses him “is there any way now to go back and add cost containment” Brill opines “it was impossible then; it’s more impossible now” ultimately concluding that only when it becomes a fiscal crisis will we do anything to rein in spending.
I disagree with Mr. Brill. The task has become more difficult but the VA model will not be a solution in my lifetime. That political bridge to a single payer system was burned with the scandal. Now we are negotiating health care cost efficiency reforms without Medicaid expansion to lure politicians to the table. You have to start somewhere and there is no other choice!
Next time someone starts whining about income inequality tell them controlling health care costs would have been a good first step at putting money back into the middle class’s pocket book.