COVID-19 Vaccinations And False Positives

My mother-in-law broke her hip last week. When she was admitted to the hospital, the hospital administered a COVID-19 test. Despite showing no COVID-19 symptoms and have been given the first COVID-19 shot earlier in the month, she tested positive for COVID-19. The doctors said she would have to be transferred to a medical facility housing COVID-19 patients. My wife was upset and demanded a second test. Not surprisingly, the second test came back negative. Although my mother-in-law has probably developed some immunity from the first shot, it is unlikely she has enough immunity to survive the viral load in a COVID-19 ward. The doctors almost made a dreadful mistake. Thanks to my wife, my mother-in-law dodged that bullet.

Goodbye Twitter

Many years ago I signed up for Twitter because I thought it would be fun. At that time the phrase “don’t be evil“,  was embraced in Google’s corporate code of conduct and we had a warm, fuzzy feeling about the social media companies. Well, things have changed. The fun is gone and the arrogance of social media companies has grown unbearable. They may have thought they had a good reason for censorship but their actions are scaring the rest of us. I no longer trust social media companies to do the “right thing”. In this brand new world, it makes sense to review my privacy exposure and get rid of any social media I am not actively using. Goodbye, Twitter.

Ohio Is Having A #COVID19 Party And For The Time Being, I Am Happy

Data from Ohio COVID-19 page

When I was in kindergarten my older sister came home with the chickenpox. Although we did not have a “pox party” per se, my parents believed it was better to “get over” chickenpox and measles at an early age. Since we have safe and effective vaccines for Chickenpox and Measles today, doctors frown on this method of immunization. Immunization from COVID-19 is different. The soonest we expect to have a COVID-19 vaccine is 2021. It looks like the low-risk part of the population is tired of the lockdown. Their solution is a good old fashion COVID-19 “pox party”. 

On July 5th, the seven-day moving average of COVID-19 confirmed cases was 953 per day. The long term trend was 460 per day. Part of this increase can be explained by 17,275 tests per day. This is at least 50% more than two weeks ago. Despite the confirmed case surge, the most important COVID-19 statistics are hospitalizations, ICU, and deaths, and the seven-day moving averages have dropped below long-term trends. On Friday, we had zero deaths. This probably means the elderly with pre-existing conditions are not being adversely affected by the surge in young people getting infected. The sooner the young people get over COVID-19, the closer we get to herd immunity. This is the next best thing to a vaccine.

Ohio’s COVID-19 Mitigations Did Not Work

Data from Ohio COVID-19 site, https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/home

I have been recording Ohio’s COVID-19 statistics in a spreadsheet since mid-March. To my surprise, when I plotted the data in April, I got a bunch of straight lines. I was expecting an exponential curve as seen in places like New York City. When President Trump announced the federal rules for states to re-open, I was puzzled. The Ohio COVID-19 statistics were straight lines and not declining. According to federal rules for re-opening, Ohio had not met one of the basic rules. Ohio went ahead anyway. It is now almost 30 days after Ohio started re-opening. Those daily increases for Confirmed Cases, Hospitalizations, ICU, and deaths have not budged. The coefficient of determination for the trendlines, R2, is really good. With 109 days of data in the books, we can safely say that the lockdown, masks, and social distancing do not appear to have had much of an effect on the COVID-19 statistics in Ohio.

Kente Scarves And Confederate Statues

If we can believe that Kente scarves are more about black pride than a convenient way to identify slave traders, then why do we have problems with Civil War reconciliation efforts such as civil war statues? The Civil War was the largest human catastrophe in American history. According to the American Battlefield Trust, “there were an estimated 1.5 million casualties reported during the Civil War“. There were 27 million white people in the United States in 1860. About 5.5% of the population did not come home from the war. At the end of the war, the slavery issue was settled but the reconciliation between the North and the South was a huge problem. The South was decimated and the North proved themselves to be particularly inept as an occupying force. Eventually, both sides agreed to let local communities grieve in their own way. Especially in the South, they chose to erect statues and hold parades to commemorate those who served. It was not much but the communities gradually healed. For this purpose, the statues served their purpose and can be put away now. When you look at the loss of life during the war, the people complaining about the statues sound petty and hypocritical. It is as if 1.5 million casualties do not matter. Joseph Stalin would approve.

“The death of one man is tragic, but the death of thousands is statistic.” ~ Joseph Stalin

The Day The Case For Gun Control Died

History has shown that when people start rioting the police back off or drop to a knee. When the police abandon you and you are confronted with a violent situation, normally peaceful people will do what is necessary to protect themselves and their property. Just a couple of months ago brandishing a weapon and using deadly force would have gotten you arrested. Now it is the new normal. Times are a-changing.

Pantry Lessons From The Pandemic

I make most of my meals from scratch and shop at a big box store, Sam’s Club, so setting up a pantry made sense for me. Despite being somewhat prepared for the pandemic, I ran into a few problems.

  1. Toilet Paper – Although I buy enough toilet paper to last us three months, we had only one month’s supply when the lockdown started. I purchased a few emergency rolls before I could get the 45 rolls of toilet paper.
  2. Beans – I keep dried beans on the shelf and I ran out of black beans. I did not realize that my supply of beans was low. Surprisingly, I found some black beans in the gourmet section of the grocery store. I found canned black beans in the Hispanic food section.
  3. Diced Tomatoes – I buy diced tomatoes by the case and the case lasts about two months. When the lockdown started I had only one can in the case. I waited for two months for Sam’s Club to restock. I finally gave up and bought it online.
  4. Spaghetti – I typically buy a six-pound package and it took Sam’s Club three months to restock.
  5. Chicken – I typically like to buy large packages of boneless chicken breasts and thighs. I use part of the chicken in one meal and freeze the rest. The availability has been so unpredictable I have been buying it whenever I found it in stock.
  6. Beef and Pork – Surprisingly, beef and pork availability was great at the beginning of the lockdown. Now it is terrible.

Solutions

  1. Do a better job of keeping track of inventory levels when things are getting squirrely. Checking your inventory after the government has announced a lockdown is too late. A six month supply looks like a reasonable tradeoff between shelf space and cost. If I had increased my inventory levels to six months in February, I would have not run out of anything.
  2. Availability is the problem. Adaptability is the solution. When chicken breasts, beef, and pork were not available, I switched to organic chicken, frozen fish fillets, and frozen hamburger patties.

The Cannibalization Of American Cities

2020 has not been good for people who live in, work in, or visit cities. In March, we found out that cities are excellent breeding grounds for COVID-19. New York City led the country in this grisly statistic but a similar statement can be made that large cities dominate state COVID-19 infection rates. Ironically, public health officials have been particularly inept in their response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the cities they work in. As a general rule of thumb, if you want to avoid getting infected with COVID-19 you should avoid big cities and people from big cities.

The second problem we learned from the COVID-19 pandemic is the jobs and businesses that are especially vulnerable to COVID-19 distancing requirements are primarily located in cities. In contrast, most of the jobs in suburbia and rural areas are either essential or the distancing requirement is not a problem. It may be a long time until sports, entertainment, and convention industries return to normal. The businesses that depend on these industries such as, the restaurant, hospitality, and travel industries, are at risk, too. A real risk to business owners is their business will not be profitable in the foreseeable future. Some business owners cannot afford to wait for their business to recover fully.

The final problem is that the “crazy Karens” and the rioters are making cities unattractive to live in, work in, or to visit. It is as if the “crazy Karens” and the rioters are trying to get people to leave the cities. However good the intentions of a protest, it is foolish arrogance to not see that it is your people, your neighborhoods, and your police you are hurting when the protest becomes a riot. The folks in suburbia are more concerned with getting their hair cut then the trashing of your neighborhood. At some point, the media will get tired of the story, too. If you keep up this foolishness, you will get your wish. The people who can move will move and you will be poorer for it.

Ohio COVID-19 Trends Are Linear Not Exponential

Pew Research Center COVID-19 Graph 2020-05-20

When you look at this graph from the article, Coronavirus death toll is heavily concentrated in Democratic congressional districts, you can see that the trends in densely populated urban and suburban areas(Democratic districts) are vastly different trend than those in less densely populated districts(Republican districts). When I plotted the raw COVID-19 numbers from the Ohio COVID-19 site, it looks like a bunch of straight lines. So it is not a surprise that the best match for a trend line is a straight line. In the chart below the trend lines are such a good match you cannot tell the difference between raw data and the trend line for ICU, Hospitalizations, and Deaths.

I have been plotting this data for several weeks now. I was looking to see the downward trend in Ohio from the mitigation efforts. It looks like it will keep chugging along on this low rate. The good news is that that the ICU, hospitalization, and deaths for Ohio are low and manageable. I suspect that the current mitigation efforts work best in densely populated districts and long term care facilities with exponential increases. The rest of the country probably needs a plan that works for linear increases.