Where is the Taxable Income going to come from?

Since Mr. Obama expects to achieve significant revenue by taxing people earning over $250,000 I started to think about the tax returns for these people in 2008 and 2009. Considering how far the stock market has dropped I suspect that there will be a lot of high income people who will be reporting significantly lower capital gains on their tax returns. Unless the stock market makes a remarkable rebound, I suspect that quite a few people who reported significant taxable income from their stock portfolios in the past years will not be showing a net capital gain for several years. When you factor in tax loss carry-over’s, it could be several years before capital gains provides taxable income. When you combine this shortfall with expected shortfalls in employee bonuses and commissions, I suspect that the over $150,000 income group will be smaller and provide significantly smaller tax revenue. Since this tax group already pays a disproportionate share of the tax  revenue, it is not hard to conclude that the next president will be looking at a major budget deficit. This affects the Obama plans a bit more than the McCain plans since he has linked his middle class tax rebate to the increased tax revenue from this high income group. It will be extremely tough for either candidate to fulfill any campaign promise.

The Columbus Dispatch : Judge rules Ohio homeless voters may list park benches as addresses

 

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) – A federal judge in Ohio has ruled that counties must allow homeless voters to list park benches and other locations that aren’t buildings as their addresses.

U.S. District Judge Edmund Sargus also ruled that provisional ballots can’t be invalidated because of poll worker errors.

Monday’s ruling resolved the final two pieces of a settlement between the Northeast Ohio Coalition for the Homeless and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.

The coalition agreed to drop a constitutional challenge to Ohio’s voter identification law until after the Nov. 4 election. In return, Brunner and the coalition agreed on procedures to verify provisional ballots across all Ohio counties.

The coalition was concerned that unequal treatment of provisional ballots would disenfranchise some voters.

The Columbus Dispatch : Judge rules Ohio homeless voters may list park benches as addresses

Just a Reminder, Pray for All People

2:1 First of all, then, I urge that supplications, prayers, intercessions, and thanksgivings be made for all people, 2 for kings and all who are in high positions, that we may lead a peaceful and quiet life, godly and dignified in every way. 3 This is good, and it is pleasing in the sight of God our Savior, 4 who desires all people to be saved and to come to the knowledge of the truth. 5 For there is one God, and there is one mediator between God and men, the man [1] Christ Jesus, 6 who gave himself as a ransom for all, which is the testimony given at the proper time.

Passage: 1 Timothy 2 (ESV Bible Online)

The Weekend Interview – WSJ.com

This is not due to a lack of money available to lend, Ms. Schwartz says, but to a lack of faith in the ability of borrowers to repay their debts. "The Fed," she argues, "has gone about as if the problem is a shortage of liquidity. That is not the basic problem. The basic problem for the markets is that [uncertainty] that the balance sheets of financial firms are credible."

So even though the Fed has flooded the credit markets with cash, spreads haven’t budged because banks don’t know who is still solvent and who is not. This uncertainty, says Ms. Schwartz, is "the basic problem in the credit market. Lending freezes up when lenders are uncertain that would-be borrowers have the resources to repay them. So to assume that the whole problem is inadequate liquidity bypasses the real issue."

The Weekend Interview – WSJ.com

I could not have said it better myself. A  few days ago I went to the AIG web site and looked up their financials. I was curious how they spun this mess. Their balance sheet does not show a problem but they have a separate presentation explaining that they were in a severe financial crisis. The MBA in me says the balance sheet should reflect the risks the company is facing. It did not reflect these risks for AIG and the balance sheets for other financial firms do not reflect the risks either. You just cannot trust any of them. Now that’s a problem that is going to take a long time to fix!

RE: housing_projection.jpg

I found this image on my del.icio.us feed. I believe the Internet source of the graph is actually from a post written in 2006 titled “How Far Will Your House’s Price Fall?” on the Capitalism 2.0 blog.  I believe the original graph may have been created by Shiller. Reading this post for the first time in 2008 I think it is interesting to note that the graph appears to show the same trend as the graph I did in Excel this year. However my graph shows the actual Case-Shiller numbers through 2008 while the 2006 graph is a projection of the future written in December 2006. The portion of the 2006 graph predicting a steep decline in home values appears to follow the actual results in 2007 and 2008. The most ominous thing I see in the 2006 prediction is that he is assuming that we have a basically sound economy like we had in the two previous declines. This is a debatable choice. I think the problems in those recessions are considerably less severe than today’s economic problems. Maybe I have a rosier view of the past but this recession looks like it is going to be much worse for a much longer period. The magnitude of the decline is much larger and the economic problems are more severe. The 2006 prediction of a 2011 bottom in home values just below the trend line may be too optimistic.

housing_projection

2000-08 Real Estate Appreciation versus the Consumer Price Index

A Fatal Cancer To The Republican Party

Dear David,

I know you intended to praise Mr. Obama in this article when you say that the characteristic you are most impressed with is his intellect but your logic does not work for me.  I do not have a problem if this characteristic inspires you but it gives me an icky feeling. It gives me the same feeling I had when a friend told me that my blind date has a nice personality. In this time of crisis I really do not care how well Mr. Obama can discuss obscure authors like Niebuhr. I do care whether he can lead this country. Intellectualism is pretty low on my list of leadership characteristics.

With regard to your point about Sarah being a fatal cancer to the Republican party, I think you are ignoring how bad some of the “ideas” you are defending. You complain that she is anti-intellectual and scorns ideas. I believe that her lack of respect for some of these ideas is well founded and echoes the sentiment of a lot of people. As an example I went to the AIG web site and reviewed their Conference Call Credit Presentation. From this presentation I can tell that there are some real intellectuals at AIG and they can make some really nice charts. I bet a couple of these intellectuals can even discuss Niebuhr at length. So please excuse Sarah and the bipartisan contempt for AIG. It is not that we are anti-intellectual but we feel our intellectuals have betrayed us. What is readily apparent to the people on Main Street seems to be lost on the smart men and women who used to work on Wall Street. Betting the company on these risk management ideas was a really bad idea. This same argument can easily be extended to Fannie Mae, Lehman, and all of the companies involved in the bailout.

Another intellectual full of grand ideas deserving your attention is Barney Frank. In a feat that would inspire awe from Machiavelli our country has embraced Barney Frank’s ideas of government sponsored mortgage banking and subsidies for housing. Barney could never get his ideas through his committee let alone through the House of Representatives but here we are embracing his ideas for getting out of this mess. Barney is probably pretty confident that once we create these institutions we will never go back. The best part of this trick is that there never was a debate or a vote. As we lurch from capitalism to socialism I find it amazing that we are just a small step from adopting New York City’s model of rent control throughout the land. As we reluctantly embrace socialism as a necessary evil, it is a natural conclusion that we will willingly sacrifice one of our principles that makes home owners so important to the country. Home owners are financially independent because they have allowed themselves to be transformed by their sacrifice, sweat, and equity.  This process of owning a house demands a financial discipline by the families that they typically cannot do on their own. Their sacrifice makes them tough and independent. They are the country’s financial backbone and embody the American Dream. Home ownership without sacrifice, sweat, or equity is not home ownership. It is renting. If you want to see a vision of the future for housing you just need to look at New York City. Despite the fact that Barney Frank’s ideas for government are being implemented there is widespread bipartisan anger, disgust, and contempt. If you are correct and Sarah is the fatal cancer to the Republican Party, then we are already lost. There will be no debate and our path to socialism will be unimpeded. It is a natural conclusion that socialism will change our economy in dramatic ways. Many people will be very uncomfortable if our role model becomes Denmark. On the other hand Sarah’s embrace of populism may be just the balancing power we need to use the best characteristics of capitalism to reform these institutions that successfully avoided reform in the past. It will be difficult. Our “good idea” to fix this financial crisis is to issue more bad loans to cover the past bad loans. This may not be a good time to ignore all of the angry people out there and embrace intellectualism. The drums we hear in the distance is not the sound of a parade.

Nearly 1 in 6 Homeowners ‘Under Water’

The Wall Street Journal article, Nearly 1 in 6 Homeowners ‘Under Water’,  echoes my sentiments on the real estate crisis. Everybody is going to feel the pain but a few states are going to feel a lot more pain than others. There are nice statistics and graphs in this article. I recommend it.

Falling home prices have left nearly one in six owners owing more on a mortgage than the home is worth, raising the potential for more defaults.

2009 State Business Tax Climate Index

From the Tax Prof blog we get this post. Read it and weep! I expected that California, New York, and New Jersey would be leading the laggards list but Ohio’s position is a crying shame. I told my boss about this article and he called his real estate broker to ask about the availability of warehouses in Kentucky.

The Tax Foundation has published its 2009 State Business Tax Climate Index.  Here are the states with the best business tax climates:

  • 1. Wyoming
  • 2. South Dakota
  • 3. Nevada
  • 4. Alaska
  • 5. Florida
  • 6. Montana
  • 7. Texas
  • 8. New Hampshire
  • 9. Oregon
  • 10. Delaware

Here are the ten states with the worst business tax climates:

  • 41.  Minnesota
  • 42.  Nebraska
  • 43.  Vermont
  • 44.  Iowa
  • 45.  Maryland
  • 46.  Rhode Island
  • 47.  Ohio
  • 48.  California
  • 49.  New York
  • 50.  New Jersey

2009 State Business Tax Climate Index
Paul Caron
Tue, 07 Oct 2008 19:00:00 GMT

California’s Dilemma

I think that the Wall Street Journal has finally noticed the crisis affecting local government for the next couple of years. In the article titled, California’s Dilemma, they point out the problem with the northern California city of Vallejo going into bankruptcy court to break labor union contracts. When you combine the price of real estate drops with foreclosures, the real estate tax income drops dramatically. Every person I know who owns real estate is trying to get their property re-appraised so that they can pay lower taxes and they are probably going to win. State and local governments are getting ready to go to war over budgets cuts. The greatest pain will be felt in the states who had the largest real estate appreciation, California, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida. Here is a graph I did back in August when I was pondering where is the bottom of the real estate market.

2000-08 Real Estate Appreciation versus the Consumer Price Index