Random Thoughts about the war between Israel and Hezbollah

There are many opinions floating around about this war and I have my own. Here are some of them.

  1. War is Hell! The US is the only country that believes it can fight a perfect war. Everyone else understands that they cannot fight a perfect war and that collateral damage is going to occur. It is a natural outcome of wars like this that both sides are losers!
  2. Israel knew that Hezbollah was stockpiling missiles and it was not for a 4th of July celebration.
  3. Nasrallah made a strategic error. His pride deceived him. If he really believes that Israel would attack Hezbollah between September and November as indicated here, he should have left Israel alone and completed his stockpiling. His attack and kidnapping of the Israel soldiers unified the people of Israel in a war against Hezbollah. From my vantage point I do not believe Israel would have approved an operation of this size without a trigger like a Hezbollah attack on Israel soldiers.
  4. Israel is attempting to destroy not only Hezbollah’s military capability but also its entire social structure. My guess is that all Hezbollah towns are being bombed into rubble. This will make these towns inhabitable for several years as they rebuild infrastructure. The Shiites will be beholden to the other Lebanese factions and international supporters for food, housing, and medical services for the next couple of years. This will create a new dynamic in Lebanese politics. It will be interesting to see how this plays out since certain Hezbollah officials have threatened the leaders of these Lebanese factions.
  5. The Hezbollah soldiers have impressed everyone with their fighting ability. The Israel artillery and air support will guarantee Israel will be the victor. If you believe that this article maybe indicative of how the battle is going then Hezbollah needs to stop beating their chests and negotiate a truce while they can still claim they are the winner. My guess is that the IDF thinks Hezbollah is on the ropes and wants to finish them off before diplomacy saves Hezbollah.
  6. Hezbollah needs the rest of the Shiite world to stop encouraging them to fight on. Hezbollah soldiers are probably being killed at a rate of about three to four to one Israel soldier. Hezbollah is a much more potent political force in Lebanon if their army is intact. No army + no social services = no political power.
  7. If Hezbollah wants to force a cease fire, they should unilaterally stop firing missles at Israel and let international diplomacy force a solution on Israel.