What Happened To The Long Term Care COVID-19 Statistics, @OHdeptofhealth?

On Thursday, April 17, I went to a page off of the Ohio COVID-19 Dashboard called Long Term Care. It listed confirmed cases at long term care facilities. Today I cannot find the page. From a purely scientific viewpoint, this is important information. On Thursday after visiting the page, I was quizzing my wife whether she remembered the long term care facility her grandmother was in. It was a few years ago and she did not remember the facility. One of the long term care facilities sounded vaguely familiar. Our situation has changed over the years. Her mom is now 84 years old. She is a pain in the butt but I think it is highly unlikely we will ever transfer her to a long term care facility. Like most people caring for the elderly, long term care is on our mind. So what is the plan with long term care facilities? Obscuring the obvious is not a winning plan. If we are planning to let the state get back to work, it is important that we have the most vulnerable portion of the population taken care of. So what is the plan?

Plot Of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases In Ohio By Population Density

I was curious whether population density mattered in the spread of COVID-19. To answer this question I calculated the population density for every Ohio county and did a scatter plot of the March 26th Confirmed Cases. The three points on the right side of the plot are Cuyahoga(Cleveland), Franklin(Columbus), and Hamilton(Cincinnati) Counties. The exponential trend line looks like a pretty good match to the data.

Confirmed Corona Virus Cases By County In Ohio – 2020-03-26

This graph is created using the numbers on the dashboard at the Corona Virus Case for Ohio page using R. This will be my last edition of this graph. The dashboard displays a similar graph and has more functionality to subset the data. Important things to notice:

  • So while the number of counties with at least one confirmed case of coronavirus increased to 60, the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are dominated by the Cleveland-Akron, Columbus, and Cincinnati metropolitan areas. When these areas slow down, hospitalizations and potential deaths will have peaked for the state. The rest of the state’s counties continue to participate at a much slower rate.

Confirmed Corona Virus Cases By County In Ohio – 2020-03-25

This graph is created using the numbers at the Corona Virus Case for Ohio page using R. Important things to notice:

  • The Cleveland-Akron and Columbus metropolitan areas continue to dominate the number of confirmed cases and the growth rate compared to the rest of the state.
  • Cleveland-Akron area grew by 62 cases to 326.
  • Columbus area grew by 21 cases to 114.
  • Cincinnati area grew by 11 cases to 79.

Confirmed Corona Virus Cases By County In Ohio – 2020-03-24

This graph is created using the numbers at the Corona Virus Case for Ohio page using R. Important things to notice:

  • This continues to be a big city disease right now. 75% of the confirmed cases are in either the Cleveland-Akron area(47%), Columbus area(16%), or the Cincinnati area(12%). By far the largest contributor to the Cincinnati increase was Hamilton county. The suburbs, Butler, Warren, and Clermont counties, were static.
  • Good News. The Cleveland-Akron area increased by only 38 new cases. Cincinnati increase by only 15 cases. These numbers imply a slowing rate of increase.
  • Bad News. Columbus increased by 39 new cases. These numbers imply an increasing rate of increase. The suburbs are part of this increase.
  • 44% of Ohio counties have no confirmed cases.

Confirmed Corona Virus Cases By County In Ohio – 2020-03-22



This graph is created using the numbers at the Corona Virus Case for Ohio page using R. Important things to notice:

  • Like yesterday this is a big city disease right now. Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati leads this list.
  • The counties with existing confirmed cases are showing the greatest growth. The sick counties are getting sicker
  • There are large swaths of Ohio without a single confirmed case of Corona Virus. 40 of Ohio’s 88 counties have at least one confirmed case.
  • The counties that do not have a confirmed case probably have been socially distancing long before it was recommended.



Confirmed Corona Virus Cases By County In Ohio – 2020-03-21

Confirmed Corona Virus Case By County In Ohio

This graph is created using the numbers at the Corona Virus Case for Ohio page using R. Important things to notice:

  • This is a big city disease right now. Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati leads this list.
  • The counties with existing confirmed cases are showing the greatest growth.
  • There is large swaths of Ohio without a single confirmed case of Corona Virus.

Things That Make Me Go Hmm… 64 Of 14,030 Corona Virus Cases In US Are Serious Or Critical

Corona Virus Statistics from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/From Worldometer we get this interesting statistic. I still want the folks in Washington, New York, and California to shelter in place since they are the sources of future infections in the rest of the country. For the rest of the country, we may be overreacting to the threat posed by the Corona Virus.

Would Someone Please Remind Governor DeWine That He Is Governor Of A Fly-over State

When Governor DeWine announced that 100,000 people in Ohio might have the coronavirus in Ohio, I thought that was bold. That was daring. That was a Scientific wild-ass guess. It was apparent that he had a set of policies he wanted to implement and he needed some scientific justification. He probably reasoned that if California, New York, and Washington have self-quarantined then it must be a good idea for Ohio to get out in front of the issue. According to the John Hopkins coronavirus site, the top five states with confirmed coronavirus cases are New York, Washington, California, Massachusetts, and Florida. All of these states are logical ports of entry for the virus versus fly-over America. These states have large cities that make controlling community spread of the virus harder to do. Self-quarantining in these states is an appropriate policy to avoid overloading the hospitals. When we look at Ohio we see a different picture.

  1. According to the Ohio coronavirus website, Ohio has 50 confirmed cases and 14 cases that required hospitalization. These numbers are well underneath the capacity of our healthcare systems.
  2. Self-quarantining confirmed cases sounds practical. Large scale self-quarantining in Ohio is probably marginally useful at best. People are already annoyed at the pandemonium and chaos it has caused. A Scientific wild-ass guess is not a good reason for lost wages.
  3. Spring is only four days away.  Warming weather and the official end to the flu season is on the horizon.
  4. Ohio’s population is more spread out than the cities on the east and west coasts.

All of these factors point to a pretty good scenario for preventing the spread of coronavirus. Getting to that 100,000 number in the next couple of months is going to pretty difficult. This is a goal I am happy not to reach. Thank God, I live in fly-over America!