Health Care Spending In America, In Two Graphs

Wow! I must be stuck in a time warp. I still spend money on healthcare like I am in the 1970s.

Health Care Spending In America, In Two Graphs

Lam Thuy Vo and Jacob Goldstein

February 04, 2013 2:26 PM

Spending on health care has, of course, been rising in the U.S. for decades. Health care now accounts for 18 cents of every dollar Americans spend, up from 7 cents in 1970.

But where, exactly, is all that money going? And, for that matter, where is the money coming from to pay for all that health care? We found answers to both of these questions in this data set.

First, here’s where the money is going.

How We Spend Our Health Care Dollars

Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services

Credit: Lam Thuy Vo / NPR

Despite huge changes in medicine and medical technology, the share of health dollars that flows to each major category has changed little in the past 40 years. In other words, spending on each category ”” drugs, hospitals, doctors, etc. ”” has increased at about the same rate.

What has changed dramatically is where the money comes from.

How We Pay for Health Care

Source: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services

Credit: Lam Thuy Vo / NPR

In 1970, by far the biggest share of health care spending was what people spent out of their own pockets. Today, insurance (private plans along with Medicare and Medicaid, which are government-run) covers almost everything.

We emailed Uwe Reinhardt, the Princeton health economist, to ask about this shift.

Insurance coverage has become much more comprehensive, he said.

For example, in 1970, people typically had to pay for drugs out of their own pockets. By 2000, it had become routine for private insurance to cover drugs. Medicare drug coverage began in 2006.

What’s more, he said, in many cases, employees gave up some freedom of choice in health care in exchange for less out of pocket spending. But that trend is reversing itself, he said.

"Now we are going the other way, with higher deductibles and coinsurance for employer-based plans," he said.

A giant, long-term study conducted in the ’70s and ’80s is relevant here. Researchers randomly assigned people to receive different types of insurance ”” some had full coverage, while others had to pay for a big chunk of the care they received.

People had to pay more for care tended to get less care. And people who were poor and who had to pay more for care fared worse on some key health measures.

The underlying question here is one of the oldest and most contentious in health economics: What costs should health insurance cover, and what costs should be left to individual patients?

For more, see our recent story on insurance coverage for breast pumps, and see the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Health Care Costs Primer.

Copyright 2013 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

Copyright 2013 NPR. To see more, visit http://www.npr.org/.

Health Care Spending In America, In Two Graphs
Mon, 04 Feb 2013 19:26:00 GMT

More on my Follow-up to my Questions about Health Reimbursement Accounts

On Friday I decided to follow-up with the Department of HHS about my question about HRA, “Can a firm with less than 50 employees continue to offer HRAs since these firms are specifically exempt from the Affordable Care Act(2711) regulations?” So I called the HHS switchboard and they transferred me to a regional office where I left a message. As a person covered by a HRA in which I purchase health insurance in the individual insurance market, I am a person with “skin in the game” and I doubt that my place of employment will add a group sponsored health insurance to the HRA plan. My boss had said they chose a HRA with individual health insurance since it achieved the same results with less cost to the firm. That is an interesting statement. I found confirmation for his statement in the brief, Spending for Private Health Insurance in the United States, and posted my results in the post, Spending for Private Health Insurance in the United States. This begs the question, “Why is the HHS promoting such an inefficient health care policy?” I think I know the answer. Some things are better left unsaid if I want my particular situation to stay unchanged.

Follow-up to my Questions about Health Reimbursement Accounts | alazycowboy.com

Happiness is an Emergency Power System that Works!

TC10323R

Last year was a particularly difficult electric power year for us. In the last 13 years we probably had four outages that lasted more than 24 hours. It happened so infrequently we kept the generator in the back of the barn. Last year we had four 24+ hour outages. The big problem for us is that we get our water from a cistern. That means that we need electricity to pump water. Ten years ago we had a transfer switch installed so we could safely use a generator to power 6 circuits that included the pumps. It was a Generac transfer switch with a double throw switch for each circuit. During the third power outage I hooked up the generator and it immediately tripped the breaker on the generator. My wife decided it must be the generator since our generator was ten years old and went out and bought a new generator. With this new generator we keep it in a much more convenient location to the transfer panel. I can roll out the generator and hook it up to the transfer panel in about five minutes. On December 23rd we had our fourth 24+ hour power outage. I hooked up the new generator and the breaker tripped whenever I tried to turn on a circuit. A circuit providing power to the water was not functioning whether it was connected to the generator or the utility power. Now I knew that the Generac transfer switch had a serious problem. I performed some emergency wiring to get power back to the pump. Two days after Christmas our electrician came out and confirmed that we had a problem with the transfer switch and cleaned up my temporary wiring. Last Friday we finally got our new transfer switch installed. The electrician replaced the Generac unit with a GE Power Transfer switch and a new electrical sub panel. This a more industrial looking solution so I have a warm, fuzzy feeling that this solution will be more reliable. I stayed home on Friday to test the switch and verify that the circuits were working. It worked. I was curious about the price of the transfer switch. I found it at Home Depot and Lowes for $118. This looks like a cost competitive and more reliable solution compared to the Generac prewired solutions.

100 Amp 240-Volt Non-Fused Emergency Power Transfer Switch-TC10323R at The Home Depot.

My Version of Out of Ammo

With all of this discussion about gun laws my wife decided it was time to go to the gun range. Shooting is a skill you maintain by practice. The problem was that she was almost out of bullets and she was concerned that her favorite ammo stores, Walmart and Target, would be out. Our farrier said the only ammo available at Walmart was the 9mm. On Friday she went to Walmart and there were no bullets on the shelves. Hmm… I wonder if we can get Yahoo Finance to post the current prices and availability for common bullets like they do for pork bellies, CDs, and insurance.

(John Hinderaker)

I really, really wanted to shoot today, but wasn’t able to. Why, you might ask? Was I backed up with work? Nope. Did I have a long list of chores to do, to stay in my wife’s good graces? Nope. I was free as a bird. But I couldn’t shoot because, with the exception of 100 rounds of 22LR and the loaded 9 mm magazines that I keep at home for purposes of self-defense, I was out out of ammo.

22LR bullets

Nor was I alone. The shelves here in Minnesota are empty. You can still find a few rounds of .380, .40 and even .45 caliber bullets, along with more exotic varieties, but the most popular ammunition”“22LR and 9 mm”“is sold out everywhere. The shelves are literally bare. Every now and then someone gets in a small shipment; a friend told me that a local Dick’s Sporting Goods got some 9 mm bullets in yesterday. They were gone almost instantly.

9 mm bullets

I figured if anyplace wouldn’t run out of ammo, it is South Dakota, so I checked with my brother. Sure enough, ammunition is gone there, too. A local store that does a major firearms business ordered a semi truck load of ammo; what got delivered was three pallets. They were told they could expect another delivery in 2014.

So what is going on? In part, certainly, the perception of a potential shortage due to the policies of the Obama administration has led to the reality of a shortage, as everyone started to stock up. I can understand the mentality: if I wandered into a gun store and found that they had just put 1,000 9 mm rounds on the shelf, I would buy them all. But does that fully explain what is happening? How about the fact that government agencies are buying up billions of rounds? There have been lots of news reports and lots of rumors, but no clear explanation of why the federal government has invested so massively in ammunition”“including the most popular civilian calibers”“over the last year. One way or another, it seems that there is a story here. But for it to be pursued, we would need “reporters.” Remember them? Nah, that was a bygone era: you probably don’t.

Images courtesy of Shutterstock.

Out of Ammo
John Hinderaker
Sun, 03 Feb 2013 01:07:45 GMT

Slow Cooker Super-Veggie Beef Stew

I decided to explore slow cooker recipes this year. I bought a new slow cooker and two cook books. This recipe comes from America’s Test Kitchen book Slow Cooker Revolution. The recipe is fairly traditional except for the cooking of the vegetables and adding chard just before serving. So far this our favorite slow cooker recipe.

What Bothers Me about the Latest GDP estimate

The thing that bothers me the most about the latest GDP estimate is not that it was negative although that was surprising. What bothers me is that our experts completely missed the reduction in government spending due to the winding down of the war in Afghanistan. I have read enough economic history books to say that increases in defense spending have been a reliable way of stimulating the overall economy. It worked in World War II in the 40s, Vietnam War in the late 60s, and Reagan years in the 80s. Defense spending had mixed results at stimulating the economy in the 90s with the first Iraq war and in the last decade with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. I think there is a very good case to argue that defense spending has historically a larger multiplier effect on GDP growth than all of the ideas to stimulate the economy in the last stimulus package. Even Paul Krugman argued on PBS that a fake alien threat was needed to stimulate the world economy. So how did our experts miss the downside of war buildups?

Follow-up to my Questions about Health Reimbursement Accounts

On Monday I got a phone call from a person with the Department of Labor who was following up on the questions I asked in the post, My Questions to the Department of Labor about the status of my HRA. He was nice but he did not have any answers to my questions. He had some advice. He said that the Department of Health & Human Services wrote the FAQ so I should contact them about the logic behind the HRA rulings in FAQ #11. He said that they also might be able to explain the legal status of HRA for firms with less than 50 employees. Oh well!

I went to the www.hhs.gov and www.healthcare.gov sites looking for more information on HRAs or a way to contact them. No luck! Each time I go to these sites I expect them to eventually be more like http://www.ehealthinsurance.com/ and each time I leave disappointed. When it comes down to questions I have about health insurance premiums and what alternatives I have, they are not much help. If these sites are an example of how health exchanges will be designed, we are in for a rough ride.

Burt Rutan: ‘This says it all and says it clear’ | Watts Up With That?

The question is whether CO2 is driving temperatures up. Burt Rutan started the discussion with this graph on Watts Up With That? post, Burt Rutan: ‘This says it all and says it clear’ | Watts Up With That?

co2-temp-rss

Chiefio liked a different graph from D. B. Stealey. It is a bit more dramatic.

 

D.B. Stealey CO2 vs USA Temperature Graph

D.B. Stealey CO2 vs USA Temperature Graph

I was curious whether the analysis would hold up if we normalized the variables. So I copied the data into an Excel spreadsheet. I was somewhat surprised to find that the NOAA CO2 data only goes back to 1958. I guess we are guessing at CO2 levels before 1958 so my inner engineer said to ignore them. Extrapolations are just assumptions with a fancier name. I also decided I would look at the temperature plots for January and July as approximate indicators of the highs and lows for the year. So I normalized the variables using 1958 as 1. It is interesting to note that the January data represented by the pink line has a greater slope(about 4x) and is a lot more variable than the July data represented by the yellow line. This is a lot more slope than be accounted for by normalizing to a with a smaller value. If we are supposed to be heating up because of CO2, the July data seems somewhat impervious to the 22.43% buildup in CO2 since 1958. Here is the bottom line. Using the predicted values from the regressions, we can say that CO2 went up 22.43% compared to a 3.72% rise in January temperature and a 1.85% rise in July temperature. It sure does not look like there is much correlation let alone causality between these variables. Here is a real strange thought. According to the slopes calculated for the January and July temperature plots, the difference between the high and the low for the year is getting smaller?! Could the additional CO2 be moderating the magnitude of the annual temperature swings? Now that is counter-intuitive. Without much ado here is my version.

Temp-CO2

My Questions to the Department of Labor about the status of my HRA

Last week on the Health Affairs Blog I read the post, Implementing Health Reform: Health Reimbursement Arrangements And More, and it pissed me off. As a healthy person with a healthy family I hoped the unintended consequences of the Affordable Care Act would not affect me. Here is the part that bothered me.

The FAQ clarifies that this approach is not possible under section 2711.   The agencies intend to issue further guidance on the issue, but have concluded that stand-alone HRAs used to purchase individual coverage will not be considered to be integrated coverage that complies with the annual dollar limit requirement.  Indeed, if employees are offered an HRA and group coverage, but decline the group coverage, the stand-alone HRA coverage will violate section 2711.  The FAQ does permit amounts accumulated in a stand-alone HRA prior to January 1, 2014 to be drawn on after that point if certain conditions are met.

After I read the FAQ I realized that my days of benign neglect are over. I also read the Federal Register Section 2711. It appears that the Department of Labor opted to for an interpretation that makes HRAs illegal. FAQ #11 states that: "The Departments intend to issue guidance providing that for purposes of PHS Act section 2711, an employer-sponsored HRA cannot be integrated with individual market coverage or with an employer plan that provides coverage through individual policies and therefore will violate PHS Act section 2711." As a person who is presently using a HRA to pay for my health expenses I strongly disagree with their interpretation and have started the process of fighting their decision. My first step is to ask the Department of Labor for clarification on two questions. It should be interesting how far I will be willing to go with this issue.

Q#1. Can a firm with less than 50 employees continue to offer HRAs since these firms are specifically exempt from the regulations?

Q#2. I use my HRA to purchase health insurance in the individual insurance market. Although my health insurance is a grandfathered plan, my insurance company is making a good faith effort at complying with Section 2711. I discussed our future health care options at our small business and we have two options, a HRA or nothing. I think they would prefer nothing. Can you explain the logic why the Department of Labor prefers that I pay for my health insurance completely out of pocket versus my present arrangement with a HRA?

Let us be perfectly honest here. With this ruling it is obvious that I was much better off before the Affordable Care Act. Is this really a step forward in health care?

Lusting for an Assault Weapon

I don’t know what it is about hearing the President and Vice President talk about gun control that stirs my animal spirit and make me want to go out and buy a gun. I am far more interested in cooking and brewing beer but I find myself distracted by this passion of owning an assault weapon. Obviously I don’t need an assault weapon. My wife owns a pistol and she is a pretty good shot. She has a concealed carry permit and I don’t think she would flinch about shooting someone in self defense. The problem is that the President and Vice President are such good gun salesmen.

The political rhetoric has been pretty fierce over gun deaths. The piece below has links to both the FBI and CDC estimates. At least we have one person in the debate who does their research.

That 30,000 number stood out to me because it seemed very high. According to the FBI, in 2011, there was a total of 8,583 firearm homicides in the U.S. That may well be 8,583 gun murders too many, but it’s nowhere near 30,000 (the total number of murders by all methods came to 12,664). The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) uses a different method and found about 11,000 gun-related murders in 2011 and the total number of homicides to be around 16,000 (see table 2). So How did Stewart get to 30,000? By adding the number of gun-related suicides to the number of homicides. When you add those figures in, you get up toward the 30,000 figure.

Barack Obama, Jon Stewart, Sandy Hook, and "Common Sense" Gun Control – Reason.com