The vast majority of reported atrocities committed by evacuees ”” mass murders, rapes and beatings ”” have turned out to be false, or at least unsupported by any evidence, according to key military, law-enforcement, medical and civilian officials in positions to know.

“I think 99 percent of it is [expletive],” said Sgt. 1st Class Jason Lachney, who played a key role in security and humanitarian work inside the Dome. “Don’t get me wrong ”” bad things happened. But I didn’t see any killing and raping and cutting of throats or anything … 99 percent of the people in the Dome were very well-behaved.”

I doubt this lapse in jounalism standards will reach the notoriety on RatherGate but journalists continue to have a real credibility problem. They know what they should be verifying stories with multiple creditable sources but they don’t or won’t.

It has become increasingly obvious that the Katrina disaster has been taken advantage of by the Democratic party and that the liberal bias in the press has once again reared its ugly head. Since the Democratic party needs some cross-over voters to win the presidency I have been surprised at their actions. I really should not advice these two esteemed institutions on this subject but here goes:

1. You should not blame the hurricane on global warming or President Bush. At least half the population thinks you are stupid or biased. So it is much better to say nothing, then to remove all doubt.
2. Do not play the race card! A lot of white people were personally hurt by that allegation. After a lot of research I am fimly convinced that the primary culprit in leaving behind the poor and primarily black people of New Orleans was the city government. If the city government is unwilling to bus its poor and sick people out of town to safety, no state or federal action will be there in time. Poor people are going to die. In case you haven’t noticed the mayor is black. Since I am white I can say that a lot of us are mad at both the press and the Democratic party for playing up this issue.
3. The President sacrificed the head of FEMA and has set the tone for how we as a nation should view incompetence in disaster management. The Democratic party needs to sacrifice at least Nagin although Blanco may be easier to sacrifice. Despite wishful thinking by the Democratic party, the local politics of New Orleans is important to the rest of the nation when you are talking about investing $150 billion in the region. I cannot imagine the rest of United States will be willing to spend this money without some assurances at the local level that they have changed their ways. Spending $150 billion and repeating this fiasco is not an option! I think the bus and police issues have doomed Nagin. I think city hall will be more willing to make the necessary changes with him out of office. Blanco is a dark horse candidate for local whipping boy. She somehow showed some amazingly visible incompetence in a disaster she should have planned a minor part. Since she won in a run off election she maybe more politically vulnerable.

What if Hurricane Ivan Had Not Missed New Orleans?

Residents who did not have personal transportation were unable to evacuate even if they wanted to. Approximately 120,000 residents (51,000 housing units x 2.4 persons/unit) do not have cars. A proposal made after the evacuation for Hurricane Georges to use public transit buses to assist in their evacuation out of the city was not implemented for Ivan. If Ivan had struck New Orleans directly it is estimated that 40-60,000 residents of the area would have perished.

Unwilling to merely accept this reality, emergency managers and representatives of nongovernmental disaster organizations, local universities, and faith based organizations have formed a working group to engage additional faith-based organizations in developing ride-sharing programs between congregation members with cars and those without. In the wake of Ivan’s near miss, this faith-based initiative has become a catalyst in the movement to make evacuation assistance for marginalized groups (those without means of evacuation) a top priority for all levels of government.

This article was published in November 2004 and predicts pretty much what happened. It is kind of scary that none of the recommendations were implemented despite the consensus by the experts on the results. The fact that faith-based organizations were developing alternative plans for helping maginalized groups get out of town means that compasionate groups in New Orleans were confident that the poor were going to be left behind to fend for themselves. In this context the rioting and looting we saw on television is a natural outcome. The city government of New Orleans betrayed their people with the greatest need.

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Multiple failures caused relief crisis

Leave it to the Brits to write the best analysis of the disaster.

The Case Against States, Part II – Blame federalism for the Katrina snafus. By Mickey Kaus

That obvious issue is how does the national government anticipate that a city like New Orleans won’t have its act together in a hurricane, so the feds can be ready with troops to take over policing and other duties more or less immediately?

I think that I am finally getting over the remorse over all of those people left behind who decided to ride the storm out. That is an issue I personally have made so my heart is in pain for those who made the “wrong” decision. I know I came close to making a huge mistake in the past but I was lucky.

It will take a much longer time for me to get over my disgust over the “evacuation” of the poor and the infirmed, the rapid collapse of the police department, and the uselessness of the bus system in this crisis. I guess this quote from Mickey Kaus sums up the frustration felt by FEMA. If we are lucky the leaders in every city will be scared and start resolving their political issues around disaster planning.

Washing away

Here is the link to the Times-Picayune special published in 2002 about the impact of a hurricane on New Orleans. One of objectives of this article was to scare people into evacuating when asked to. I am still having problems with the fact that an estimated 100,000 people were still in New Orleans when the storm hit.

The actions and inactions of Gov. Blanco and Mayor Nagin are a national disgrace due to their failure to implement the previously established evacuation plans of the state and city. Gov. Blanco and Mayor Nagin cannot claim that they were surprised by the extent of the damage and the need to evacuate so many people. Detailed written plans were already in place to evacuate more than a million people. The plans projected that 300,000 people would need transportation in the event of a hurricane like Katrina. If the plans had been implemented, thousands of lives would likely have been saved.

[Via WSJ.com: Opinion]

This article is probably too early in the process of fixing the system. The reduction in the verbiage about blame has been a welcome relief. It allows the rest of us to focus our efforts on relief rather than getting caught up in the partisan blame game. However, his point is well taken and ultimately will become priority number one after the national media goes home. Fewer people to take care of makes the job manageable. I heard on national television that Mayor Nagin says he thought that he believed 80% of the city had been evacuated. For a mandatory evacuation that is a failure grade. We will have to leave it to our imagination what a 90% or 95% evacuation would have looked like.

UPDATE: Mr. Snitch says lawsuits will be forthcoming. I am sure. When they do, I am certain this National Geographic piece from 2004 will be entered as evidence.

[Via The Anchoress]

There is a lot of interesting commentary in the Anchoress post. I found the references to probable lawsuits against the mayor for homicidal negligence and the National Geographic article about the political complexity surrounding the Louisiana wetlands to be of particular interest. The blame game is in full swing but my bets are on the simple fact that New Orleans has a hurricance evacuation plan they failed to follow. Remember, all politics is local.

What determines if a city recovers from disaster?

[Via OpinionJournal.com]

This last week I have been pondering the future of New Orleans. I have been comparing their problems to the problems that faced Galveston in the 1900. Galveston was the “financial capital” of Texas before the 1900 hurricane. It rebuilt but never again achieved its previous glory. In the 1980’s it finally embraced who it was and embarked on revitalization. Once again it became an appealing destination.

It is a daunting task for the city to rebuild but an even more challenging task for the city to lay the framework for future growth. Some people are not going to return. The OpinionJournal article hightlights the historical challenges that have faced famous cities and lays down the challenge of embracing an “attitude adjustment”. This disaster could be the final nail in the coffin or a blessing for the future of New Orleans. The plight of New Orleans rests firmly in the vision of the city leaders.

Computer models accurately predicted what would happen if the levees gave way. Lavish exercises supposedly had agencies ready to respond when they did. But when Katrina slammed into New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, the emergency response was almost as chaotic as the hurricane itself. Why?

[Via Wired News]

I read the LSU prediction that a direct hit from a hurricane would flood the city from the New Orleans newspaper website the day of the hurricane. I could tell from the article that the information in the article had been previously published in that newspaper. From the Wired article it is apparent that the city used this “hurricane causing flooding scenario” as an emergency response drill. The emergency response efforts by the city were catastrophic. There is a saying that “All politics is local”. Despite the finger pointing at global warming and federal budget cuts, it is apparent that emergency response is a local issue and the mayor and governor are at the center of the problem.