Author: bill

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Explaining The Consumer Driven Economy

Despite low gasoline prices and good employment numbers this economy is not my parent’s consumer driven economy. In my parent’s economy these factors would drive robust, broad based economic growth. In today’s economy it doesn’t. With economic gains focused almost exclusively on health care and auto sales it is fascinating that low gasoline price and good employment numbers have had almost no on the other sectors. This violates everything we have come to expect about America’s consumer driven economy. Since it is not my parent’s economy, what will trigger robust, broad base economic growth if low gasoline prices and good employment numbers will not do the job? With such a “meh” economy, why is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates? The economic fundamentals are still too weak to encourage inflation and higher interest rates traditionally slow down the economy. Despite the changed circumstances it is still reasonable to expect that an interest rate increase will drive the economy into a recession. What is the Federal Reserve worried about that is worse than a recession? Today I saw a quote from Stanley Druckenmiller that possibly explains the consumer driven economy dilemma facing the Federal Reserve.

“The problem with this is when you have zero money for so long, the marginal benefits you get through consumption greatly diminish, but there’s one thing that doesn’t diminish, which is unintended consequences.”

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Guns In America

Smith & Wesson ShieldLast night I picked up my Smith & Wesson Shield. My wife gave it to me as a Christmas present. When I came home I was literally getting familiar with my new handgun while watching clips of the “Guns in America” Town Hall Meeting. Regardless of what the President had to say about guns my wife and I had moved on. He had his chance to make my wife and I feel safe and failed. When you combine a heroin epidemic with the botched terrorism prevention efforts in Paris and San Bernardino, carrying a handgun is not sounding as crazy as it did eight years ago. I am reluctant about carrying a handgun but if the government is unable or unwilling to protect us, somebody has to do it. It might as well be me.

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Will Clinton Supporters Occupy A Federal Building If Ms. Clinton Gets Indicted?

jailI wonder if the government indicts Ms. Clinton and recommends a sentencing comparable to that they used on the re-sentencing of the Hammond ranchers, her supporters will attempt to occupy a federal building. It would attract a lot of attention even though it is highly unlikely it would change the outcome. If the government continues to follow the letter of the law like they did in the Hammond ranchers case, then it is highly likely Ms. Clinton will be indicted, convicted, and serve jail time. However distressing this outcome will be to her supporters it will be consistent with the treatment other people have received from the courts when they mishandled classified and top secret materials. If leniency is not available to the Hammond ranchers for a lesser crime, why should Ms. Clinton and her supporters expect a different outcome when her crime may be one of the worst national security mistakes I have seen in my lifetime?

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The Irony of New Gun Controls While Smith & Wesson Stock Executives Raise Sales And Earnings Outlook

You got to love the sweet irony of the almost simultaneous announcements of the President’s new gun control regulations and Smith & Wesson executives raising their sales and earnings outlook for the current quarter and its fiscal year. Not surprisingly Smith & Wesson stock is setting 52 week highs. Over the last couple of years when the President speaks about gun control, the demand for guns and the stock price of Smith & Wesson has risen dramatically. Obviously the American people do not trust the President on gun control. Here is the stock chart of Smith & Wesson and the S&P 500 over the last couple of years. The San Bernardino killings is a sad reminder that the Administration is a loser when it comes to protecting the American people from terrorism. If our country is not willing or able to protect its citizens, it is time to man up and carry a gun.

SWHC Chart From Yahoo Finance 2016-01-05

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Gun Control In 2016

Gallup_Terrorism1If you had told me eight years ago that I would be carrying a concealed gun in 2016 I would have thought you were crazy. However unfathomable it may have been for me in 2008, this week I found myself trying out concealed carry guns at a local gun range and browsing Amazon for holsters.  This change in attitude toward concealed carry and more broadly toward gun control has been brewing for some time. It probably started in 2009 when the government attributed the fatal shooting of shot 13 people at Fort Hood to “workplace violence”. This year it peaked with the intelligence failures that resulted in the terrorist killings in Paris and San Bernardino. I began to question whether the government would protect me from terrorists. Not surprisingly a Gallup poll on the confidence of the U. S. Government to protect citizens echoed this sentiment and showed a big drop in 2015. I was particularly irked when President Obama tried to change the subject and blame terrorism on climate change.

And, you know, if you look at world history, whenever people are desperate, when people start lacking food, when people — are not able to make a living or take care of their families — that’s when ideologies arise that are dangerous.

How can the President be so out of touch with the American people and clueless about terrorism? We want to see some empathy by our President that you know our fears and instead we get a lecture that terrorists are trying to kill us because they are hungry. I cringe every time he uses climate change and terrorism in the same sentence.

For a long time I did not want to carry a gun because I thought it would be dangerous and inconvenient. I was more than willing to not delve into that subject until the President fumbled the empathy question. Then I remembered that the biggest crime problem in our county is theft by heroin addicts. Maybe this is the right time to investigate the self defense question more thoroughly. I may not need a concealed carry weapon to stop a home invasion but concealed carry may help me to sharpen my situational awareness. The more I thought about it the more it made sense. Then I remembered that I have been carrying a pocket knife for most of my working life. Currently I carry a folding box cutter from Home Depot. It fits quite nicely in the coin pocket of my jeans and it does a nice job opening today’s adult-proof packaging. In all my years of carrying a knife I never hurt myself or anyone else with it. How big a stretch would it be for me to adjust my lifestyle to accommodate concealed carry and  practice every month?

What I find particularly fascinating is that instead of fixing the problems of intelligence failures in combating terrorism, access to guns by mentally unstable people, and crime both the Administration and state governments have tried to implement more gun control laws on law abiding citizens. As an example Virginia will no longer honor the out-of-state concealed handgun carry permits of gun owners from more than two dozen of the states with which the commonwealth currently has reciprocal privileges. Does this mean they have fixed the problem with access to guns by mentally unstable people? As a Virginia Tech alumni that is the gun control problem I hoped they fixed. When I see two instances of people killed by crazy people you have to wonder whether they care? Is the third time a charm? As long as the government fails to do their job fighting crime and terrorism, we should not be surprised to find that Black Friday Was the Biggest Day Ever for Gun Sales.

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Senator Sherrod Brown And Concealed Carry Laws

No Firearms SginSenator Sherrod Brown caught my attention with a recent comment about Rep. Ron Maag’s concealed carry bill that would allow individuals with concealed handgun licenses to carry guns in day care facilities, private planes, police departments and airport terminals before the metal detectors. It passed the Ohio House and is pending in the state Senate legislation. Here is what he said according to the Cincinnati.com:

“The Ohio Legislature’s passed a law to allow concealed weapons in day care centers, but interesting, this same Legislature, in its wisdom, doesn’t allow concealed weapons in the statehouse,” Brown said.

“When I say they’re lunatics, that’s what I’m talking about,” Brown continued. “People that think you should allow guns in day care centers but they’re protecting themselves by not allowing guns in their workplace, that would be in that category of lunatics.”

So is he upset that the law allows concealed carry in day care centers or that it continues to prohibit concealed carry in the legislature?

Last Sunday I was in a concealed carry class with three women. One of the women is both a veteran and a new mom. Although she was experienced with a rifle, a pistol is a better choice if you plan to carry a weapon while traveling around town. Unlike Israel we have panic attacks when people walk around with assault rifles. Since she is both comfortable and experienced with guns, I think it would be pretty normal for her to want to carry a concealed handgun into a day care center. If she is comfortable carrying a concealed handgun into a grocery store then carrying a concealed handgun into a day care center should not be any different. The only time anyone would know she was “carrying” is if a crazy person showed up and opened fire. The rules for engagement with lethal force are pretty similar to those used by soldiers and the police. Then every mom and dad would know and be grateful.

That leads me to the conclusion that Senator Brown was upset that legislators did not allow concealed carry in the legislature. Since most government buildings prohibit concealed weapons including handguns, continuing to prohibit concealed weapons in the legislature sounds pretty normal and makes the Senator sound like the lunatic. As a person who will try to “carry” most of the time when I get my license and gun, Rep. Maag’s bill is a common sense step forward at eliminating some of the gotcha’s of concealed carry. Like most concealed carry people I will try and follow the laws. Common sense makes the laws more effective. Just imagine that young mom dropping her kid off at day care.  Do you really want her to take her gun out of her holster and lock it up every time she goes into the day care? She is not a terrorist or a crazy person. She is a veteran. She is one of the good gals. Remember, Senator Brown, as my Senator I expect you to know the difference between a veteran and a terrorist. If you had done your job with terrorists and crazy people we would not buying guns.

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The Irony Of Watching The President Speak About ISIS And Gun Control During A Concealed Carry Class

A couple of weeks ago my wife told me that my Christmas present was a concealed carry class and gun. Yesterday I was waiting for my time on the range when I found myself watching President Obama talk about ISIS and gun control. Since I had not shot a gun in two years, I was nervous. So while my mind was racing through the checklists,  I could see the image of the President trying to make his case for increased gun control. It was surreal. It was as if he was making one last plea to me before I took the final part of my concealed carry test. I can see his face but I cannot remember a word he said. His plea was falling on deaf ears. When it comes down to the safety of my family whose advice should I trust, our President or my wife?  The answer was obvious. A few minutes after his speech ended I went to the range and passed the test. Sorry, President Obama, I moved on.

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Why Is The President Going To Paris When The Military Has A Travel Ban?

Ambassador christopher stevens.jpg
The President’s trip upcoming trip to Paris for the 2015 United Nations Climate Change conference reminds me that we have not learned our lessons from the Benghazi attack. When the British Foreign Office withdrew all consular staff from Benghazi in late June, it was both stupid and arrogant for Ambassador Stevens to go there on September 11th. I was hoping that those four deaths were not in vain.

Today I found out from the Army Times that DoD implements Paris travel ban for all troops, civilian personnel. The article states that:

Personnel on official travel or emergency leave to Paris or elsewhere in France will need approval from a general officer, according to EUCOM.

The DOD travel ban reminds me of the British Foreign Office actions in Benghazi and the President reminds me of the Ambassador. I hope it turns out better but as George Santayana said,

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

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Things that make me go hmm… Poop Swastika Story Might Be A Fraud

 wrote an interesting story about the facts surrounding the poop swastika at the University of Missouri. He investigated the story and found out:

  1. No one personally witnessed the poop swastika.
  2. The photo of the poop swastika appears to have been taken from the internet. A Google search for the same image shows that it has been floating around the Internet for nearly a year.

This leads me to two fascinating questions.

  1. In this modern world where every phone has a camera, why did no one take a picture?
  2. If we assume the poop swastika was in the men’s bathroom then are we saying that there is a male student at Mizzou who not only had cleaning supplies but cleaned the wall so well that they did not need to involve a Resident Adviser or the building maintenance staff?
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Dr. Carson and The West Point Kerfuffle

Robert Frost NYWTSMy father graduated from West Point. When I told him I wanted to go to Purdue and join the Navy ROTC with some high school buddies of mine, he got mad. He said that if you are planning on a military career you need to go to West Point. He was right. The combination of my grades, athletics, and a service nomination made me a natural candidate to one of America’s elite colleges.  That is not saying they would accept me but when I graduated from high school in 1972 they were less picky. The Vietnam War was winding down and America’s affection with the military had been trending downward for a long time. Enrollment at senior military colleges was at historical lows.  Although the Vietnam War was still a major issue for eighteen year-olds, my problem was that I did not see myself as a military man. Unlike my father who went to West Point at the end of World War II, I had the luxury of taking a different path. So I am not surprised that an even better West Point candidate than me, Dr. Carson, would refer to his appointment to  West Point with such certainty and in the next breath decide on a different path. We will never know how good a military man he could have been but I think he turned out pretty well. Robert Frost said it best.

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,

And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.