Things that make me go hmm…

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Mr. Zients Versus The Mythical Man Month

Last week I had to chuckle when Mr. Zients announced that “by the end of November, HealthCare.gov will work smoothly for the vast majority of users.” I am one of the few long time www.healthcare.gov visitors and have been anxiously looking forward to improvements since 2010 when I first complained the insurance finder was useless. Although I admire his chutzpah the two things I can say for sure is that there will be a touchdown dance on November 30th and there will still be a lot of serious problems to fix. The touchdown dance is the easy part of his task. Unfortunately the American people are married to this software. Like a bad Las Vegas wedding in which we hate to admit our mistake, we will trudge onward for the sake of the children.

The first problem facing Mr. Zients is that he is up against the software engineering and project expertise of Fred Brooks, whose central theme in his book, “Mythical Man Month”, is that “adding manpower to a late software project makes it later” has been ignored by the administration. They have already announced their plan to hire QSSI to come in and fix the problems with the web site in 30 days. Adding more people and thinking this will fix the problem is a big problem. Saying that it has to be done in 30 days has me in alternating fits of laughing and crying. As a person who has made his living fixing “other people’s code” for thirty years, this solution is a recipe for disaster and no seems to be listening. So let me frame the problems facing this system with a diagram from the book, Mythical Man Month.

MythicalManMonth

Using the analogy from the book software products start out in the “Program” quadrant and are transformed via generalization, testing, documentation, maintenance, and system integration into a “Programming System Product”.  The “Programming System Product” in our case is www.healthcare.gov and the final acceptance test is whether the American people can use it to purchase subsidized insurance. In 1974 Mr. Brooks asserted that a “Programming System Product” costs nine times as much as the “Program” so the vast majority of the cost and effort is spent generalizing, testing, documenting, and integrating the interfaces. Unfortunately for Mr. Zients this part of software engineering has not changed over the years.

From the reports I have read there has been very little testing and the specifications for the programming interfaces did not go out until eight days before the launch. It looks like most of the money and effort was spent in the “Program” quadrant and very little was spent in the areas that would actually result in a successful “Program System Product”. This reeks of management failure. As part of 1% who successfully got through the application process far enough to download a copy of my potential insurance plans I can say that the site has a lot of serious problems. It brings a whole new meaning to the term, “bad beta site”. Although I have no doubt that this new contractor, QSSI, can clean up the code discussed in this Reddit thread, the other problems that have been reported are more daunting and time consuming. Here is a short list of problems in no particular order.

  1. The usability problems pointed out by the NN group
  2. The back end problems pointed out by Dan on marginal revolution.
  3. The 834 problems pointed out by Sarah Kliff on the Wonkblog
  4. Identity theft  problems pointed out at MotherJones.

I think both the Affordable Care supporters and detractors agree that despite the fact that the web site is a clusterfark of monumental proportions, it will get fixed eventually. The question is whether it will be sufficiently complete and secure in time. Since they ignored my old web development adage, “copy the best and ignore the rest”, maybe they should start looking at an exit plan that involves joining forces with the “best in the business”. There is still time for letting www.eHealthinsurance.com and its six competitors finish a smaller, less politicized version of the  the job and minimize the impact of a failed www.healthcare.gov.

Cross posted at wehuberconsultingllc.com

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“Essential” Park Service Employees

I had to laugh out loud when I saw the barricades “essential” Park Service employees put in place around an open-air World War II memorial. In a couple of days or weeks these employees will then be asked to come back and remove the barricades so we can return the memorial to its open-air status. Yeah, that’s my government demonstrating once again that there are no adults in the room!

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You Didn’t Build That — Internet

One of the interesting parts of President Obama’s speech in Roanoke was his explanation that government research created the Internet. Here are his words.

Government research created the Internet so that all the companies could make money off the Internet.

The key development to the Internet was the Defense Department’s Advanced Research Projects Agency Network(ARPANET) in 1969. The primary objective of the project was to allow Defense Department researchers at remote locations access the limited number of large powerful computers. The only users were Defense Department researchers. The reason the government “created” the Internet was to make better weapons. It took almost twenty years before the Internet was opened up for businesses and the public and the Defense Department stopped subsidizing the Internet. Since the Internet was “free” it probably directly led to the demise of two private network competitors, Tymnet and Compuserve. If the government’s plan was for businesses to make money off of the Internet it was a remarkably slow and confused plan with lots of collateral damage in the business community.

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Could Concealed Carry In the Theater Saved People In Aurora?

It was just a few days before the shooting at the theater in Aurora that we were chuckling at the video at Ocala.com showing a 71 year old man shooting at and chasing some would-be robbers out of an internet cafe. That got me to thinking. What would have happened if the movie theater allowed patrons with concealed carry training to carry their weapon into the theater. My guess is that at least one person would have pulled out their gun and engaged in a gun fight with Mr. Holmes. Like the 71 year old man this act of defiance would probably be effective at diverting the attention of Mr. Holmes and saving the lives of many movie patrons. Mr. Holmes tactical position was very poor. He was in the middle of an open stage. The rules for engagement for concealed carry weapon holders are clear. If he is shooting at you, you can shoot back. Although Mr. Holmes was reported to be wearing a bullet proof vest, if one bullet hit him he would have likely been knocked off his feet. Even if they did not hit him it is very likely that Mr. Holmes would have tried to find cover before continuing the gun fight. This would have made it very difficult or nearly impossible for Mr. Holmes to shoot patrons as they tried to leave the theater. The key to success for this plan is that the concealed carry patrons would not need to kill or wound Mr. Holmes. They just needed to buy some time for the patrons to escape, Mr. Holmes to run out of bullets, and the police to arrive.

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Is “right to work” laws a form of redistributing the wealth?

I was reading a Buckeye Institute paper advocating “right to work” laws in Ohio and came up with this question. Does a government preference to contract for services at the prevailing union wages necessarily make the government pay more for government services than they would in a “right to work” state? If you  believe that the market rates in “right to work” states is the correct price for these services, then a government that pays too much for these services is redistributing the wealth to a select group of people.

I would not be surprised that the employees do not share this sentiment. Although they might agree that there may have been abuses in the past, I think they would quickly point out the good and bad points about their wages and benefit plans. Although wages are an obvious issue to the casual observer, both employees and management are primarily concerned with workplace and seniority rules as it relates to staffing. This has caused an embarrassing staffing mess in several cities and counties. It is ironic that the primary reason for a state like Ohio to embrace “right to work” statutes is because collective bargaining does not appear to allow any room for improvements on these issues. So the solution is to throw out collective bargaining. Hmm… I wonder how this is going to work.

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Things that make me go hmm… Disappearing Polar Ice

The problems Nome has had with getting oil delivered is an interesting story, U.S. Icebreaker About to Reach Cut-Off Alaska Town. It appears that the city of Nome contracted with the Russians since they had a ice-classed tanker available. Although it was ice-classed it was not an icebreaker. So Nome had to convince the Coast Guard to send their only available icebreaker up to Nome to clear a path for the tanker. Didn’t Al Gore say the ice cap is supposed to disappear by 2014? When you look at the map, Nome is pretty far south by Artic Circle standards. The Coast Guard has another icebreaker. It is a 35-year old ship that is undergoing a $60 million renovation. They are hoping the renovation will extend its life an additional 7 to 10 years. We are setting ourselves up a major disappointment if Al Gore is wrong about the disappearing ice cap.

For those who are more scientifically inclined the Sea Ice Reference Page, http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/, is a great resource.

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Things that make me go hmm… Mass media ignores Obama health suit story

Last night my wife and I were discussing the decision by a judge in Florida that the Affordable Care Act was unconstitutional. My wife thought he ruled that only the Individual Mandate was overturned while I maintained that the entire bill was being overturned since there was no severability clause. Since it was dinner time and the news was on the television, we decided to let television news programs decide our debate. We watched the local news, ABC news, and the National Business Report(PBS). No one mentioned the decision. It is an interesting choice by mass media.

Fla. judge in Obama health suit has own med story – Yahoo! News

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Things that make me go hmm… Going Green

I found it curious that my electric company was very insistent that I accept their offer for a free case of CFL lights. A small popup window would appear every time I tried to pay my electric bill. I didn’t need the bulbs since I already had replaced my lights and I had extra bulbs in the closet. To get rid of the nagging I told them to send me the bulbs. I guess this is emblematic of what going green really means. I sure wish my electric company put their efforts into something useful like reducing my electrical bill or better handling of coal ash.

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Things that make me go hmm… Ohio school levy results

The theme from our main stream media pundits is that the voters do not have the stomach to cut spending on key entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid. Yet the voters seem to have no problem voting against levies for school programs. By voting against these levies levies the school districts will be forced layoff more staff and cut popular school programs. Maybe its southwest Ohio voters being difficult but only 4 of the 15 levies passed.

Ohio voters went to the polls for more than candidates Tuesday: They went to decide on the fate of schools around the southwest region.

Some levies passed and others failed.

Ohio school levy results

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Things that make me go hmm… Democrats for Fiscal Prudence

Recently I have been scouring the news in search of fiscally conservative Democrats campaign strategies or Democrats mentioning Pay-as-you-go budgeting as a budget deficit solution. I couple of months ago I thought that Ohio Governor Strickland was a likely choice to use a fiscally conservative Democrat strategy as part of his election campaign. Although it was unlikely that he would get my vote, this strategy might appeal to other independents. Instead the campaign opted to use a negative ad campaign strategy to woo independents. Unfortunately his campaign did not impress me so I am ready to mail in my ballot. Today I read a National Review article, A Democrat for Fiscal Prudence, that pointed out a Democrat following the fiscally conservative Democrat strategy. I think a political campaign more like the one being used by Julie Lassa would have been a more effective strategy of Strickland and the Democrats. The number one issue for the next couple of years will be how to reduce government spending and the Democratic party is largely ignoring the issue. The budget impasses in California, Illinois, and New York are good examples of governments controlled by Democrats that are ignoring the issue and hoping it will go away. I whimsically refer to this this issue as the Lord Voldemort of campaign issues. Here is the comment I made on pajamasmedia.com.

The Ohio governor’s race would be more interesting if the Strickland campaign adopted a stance closer to Democratic Wisconsin state senator Julie Lassa. Since I agree that Strickland’s campaign strategy is pretty dumb and not likely to improve enough by election time, I am ready to mail in my ballot.